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Tuesday, November 30, 2004

WINTER BLUES

I caught a cold. I'll be back on when at least one of the following happens: 1) my cold becomes manageable, 2) I finish my old and new projects at work, or 3) a real move is made by the Sox.

BTW, I will also be working on a couple of other larger writing projects when the hot stove really cools off around early to mid-Jan. Please stay tuned.

Monday, November 29, 2004

HOLIDAY NEWS AND ISSUES

Gabe Kapler signs a $2 million deal to play in Japan.

It is a nice opportunity for Kapler to reestablish himself as an everyday player and make some good coin. Replacing Nixon's platoon partner and backup centerfielder is not a priority for the Sox. Kapler's departure does make the decision as to tender Dave Roberts a contract more complicated. Adam Hyzdu is the in-house Kapler, but the Sox may want to be proactive in acquiring a young outfielder to be Nixon's platoon partner and the possible future replacement for Johnny Damon. Marlon Byrd would be a great fit, if the Phills sign Beltran or another centerfielder they will be looking to move the former hot prospect. Personally, Kapler’s departure means no more yelling “Kappy’s Liquahs come through again!” after a Gabe hit.

The Sox rumored plan B at catcher - Damon Miller - inked a three-year deal to play home games at Miller Park.

Hey, the tailgating before Brewer's games alone is worth picking the Brew Crew over Beantown. As Scara would say “whatever.” This move is a nobrainer for Miller after winning a title in Zona. He gets three guaranteed years at 35 and he goes home.

El Guapo's Ghost plan B at catcher - Jason Kendall - is no longer available either. As the winter's first blockbuster, Kendall was sent to Oaktown for Redman and Rhodes.

If Billy Beane does not have to trade Hattie or Durazo, the A's should have one of the top offensives in the A.L. next season, adjusted for park factors. The A's are going to be very tough.

The above two transactions likely prompted a call from Theo to Doug Fried Bellies agent. Doug is the pro-typical backup catcher and a fit for the Sox at a reported one-year deal worth an estimated $1.5 million.

Belly is not a full-time catcher and would unlikely receive more cash from another club. With Wake, Belly is more valuable in Boston than anywhere else. It is a good deal for both parties even though the Sox overpaid by about $.75.

Belly is only the smaller portion of a platoon. If he plays much more, he will be exploited. His bat has too many holes.

Theo is in a very tough spot. Tek is a huge risk after 2006 but without any other options he may have to bow to Boras or get very creative. A Belly-Greg Zaun platoon could work for a year. Signing Zaun soon would allow the Sox to hold out on Tek. Hopefully, his price will fall as his other suitors’ budgets get slimmer and slimmer as the winter wears on. As I have said before, inking Tek to three guaranteed years is a risky proposition; four is very tough to swallow and five should be out of the question.

Monday, November 22, 2004

ICE COLD STOVE

I predicted that few transactions would be completed before Thanksgiving, but where are the rumors – Polanco and Renteria, please. Don Theo continues to do an incredible job at sealing any leaks to the media. Theo should have managed the Big Debacle.

The only news coming out of Yawkey Way is the 40-man roster has only 31 players on it. It should be no surprise. At a minimum, the Sox need to add a pair of catcher and starters, a shortstop, another arm in the pen and a utility guy for the 25-man. It leaves two open spots for possible Rule 5 picks and other fodder.

Other stuff

• Benson and Rusch sign multi-year deals? These and the D.C. signing make me think that I could run a MLB team at a replacement G.M. level.

• The Anaheim-DC deal provides Stoneman with more ammunition to score Randy Johnson. A signing of one big name SS, 1B, 2B, or CF gives Anaheim the flexibility to put together a package to acquire the biggest prize this offseason.

The Globe reports that El Guapo lives: Rich Garces is closing for Magallanes in the Venezuelan winter league. It will be interesting to see if a team takes a chance on my fav. Theo how about a NRI? What does it hurt? The comedy value alone makes it a worthwhile investment.

• Two of my highlighted minor league free agents have already been signed – Jack Cust with the A’s and Esteban German signed with the Texass.

• Everyone have a great Thanksgiving. This is my favorite holiday. As I have said before, it makes my usual weekend activities, over indulging and falling asleep watching sports, socially acceptable.

Friday, November 19, 2004

DON’T SHOT THE MESSENGER

It appears to be a remote possibility that the Sox will be able to acquire Julio Lugo from the D-Rays. Carter Gaddis, Tampa Tribune Beat Writer for the D-Rays, in an email writes:

Piniella called Lugo the "heart and soul" of the Rays last year. I don't think Lugo's going anywhere. They aren't going to play Upton at SS just yet, although 3B or LF are possibilities.

We should turn our attention to other low cost short-term shortstop solutions for the Sox like Jose Valentine. (Damn, my tenth grade English teacher would dig that use of alliteration.)

Over the weekend, I’ll be checking out the transaction wire to see who gets left off the 40-man rosters, making them available for the Rule V draft, in between beers and getting ignored by beautiful babies.

YOUR PARTICIPATION IS GREATLY APPRECIATED

• If you have linked El Guapo’s Ghost.com and would like a reciprocal link, please email me. I’ll be updating my links/format/template this weekend if I don’t go out boozing.

• If you have interest in kicking El Guapo’s Ghost in fantasy baseball, send me an email. The league will be A.L. only, 5X5 plus OBP scoring, a draft for acquiring a 15-man MLB roster with 5 minor leaguers and 10 possible keepers. This is in addition to my auction league.

NEWS AND NOTES

• I am seeing more and more MFY caps around town and now instead of shaking my head in disgust, I just laugh it off now like an amusing fart joke. There are tons of them and all are worth at least a chuckle.

• When is a GM going to make a solid free agent signing? They have all committed multiple years to mediocre talent while loosing a draft pick next June.

• If Randy Johnson will only be traded to a club with a legit shot at winning a World Series, then the ChicSox are out. The MFY do not have enough. Anaheim’s best RJ trade bait – McPherson and Kotchman – appear to be penciled in at the corners (of course, they could make other moves and the still could deal Santana). St. Louis looks like they are proposing the best deal - Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Rick Ankiel. Theo can do better than a never was, a middle of the rotation guy, and a pitcher’s name that rhymes with a Price is Right game.

Ryan Howardis a name to remember. The Phillies minor league power hitting first baseman could be dealt this winter. Thome will not be traded and the Phillies are unlikely going to change Howard’s position necessitating a trade of Abreu or Burrell for 50 cents on the dollar. Ed Wade should be in the RJ and the Big Three lottery using Howard as his trump card.

• I wanted to stay away for the whole morality-FCC-ABC cross-promo thing, but after reading Wilbur I have to throw this one out there: “Any publicity is good publicity.” Disney’s marketing folks were counting on this. Powell was more than willing to jump on this to grab the news cycle for a few days away from the disaster in Falluja, the poor economic numbers, the vote to increase our debt, etc. It should have been a terrible news week for the Bush II. Unfortunately, a fu&kin’ towel dropping mid-aged actress gets all of the headlines. Anyway, I got to run Pornucopia is On-Demand.

Thursday, November 18, 2004

ALMOST FREE AGENTS

Six-year minor league free agents do not get much press nor should they. It is extremely unlikely that they will become superstars, but El Guapo’s Ghost is the fake sports media so here is a look at my favorite minor league free agents on the market.

Jack Cust - LHB DH with patience and power, but not much else. Cust needs work on making more contact at the plate to have real value. Cust is not a bad cheap PH/DH option.

Brad Thomas - 6-4 hard throwing southpaw with a curve was claimed off waivers from Minn. He is a good gamble as a third or fourth pen option. Hurt most of the season (wink, wink) with the Sox and Twins, but I bet Thomas is ready for Feb.

Esteban German - Hit 329/377/424 at Sac while playing second. Beane did not promote him after Ellis went down, which is surprising and a concern. German is a contact/speed hitter with a decent glove. He is worth a gamble on a rebuilding club that is cost conscience.

Graham Koonce - Hit 241/362/443 at Sac. He had 46 extra base hits in 436 at-bats, but 129 strikeouts. Koonce is a cheap option for a rebuilding club on a budget at 1B/DH/PH.

Keith Osik – Osik is the typical average backup catcher - average to good defense without a stick. He should find a job.

Aquilino Lopez - Former Rule 5 guy, he is a RH RP that comes at hitters with a tough slider and low 90's heat. He did well in 03 with a 64/34 K/BB ration and allowing five dingers in 73 innings, but his control and overall numbers suffered in 2004. Regardless, Lopez held RHB to 184/272/262 in 206 at-bats. A cheap ROGGY on some playoff contending clubs is valuable.

Yes, El Guapo’s Ghost is a baseball geek. Writing about minor league FAs is a sure sign. Any-HO, the moral of the story is that there are inexpensive options (waiver wire, Rule 5 draft, Minor League Free Agents, etc.) for major league clubs to fill various holes.

Wednesday, November 17, 2004

“AH, FREAK OUT”

When I saw on Dirt Dogs yesterday that Pedro had a meeting with Boss Hog, I flipped. My initial reaction was here we go again. MFY - I hate them. Then after getting my head on straight with the help of some friends, I concluded that “it’s nothing personal, it is just business.”

Jayson Stark reported on Friday, November 12th that...

An official of one team that had some initial, tentative interest in Pedro Martinez says that interest all but ended once the Red Sox offered him $25.5 million for two years.

"I can't see any other team giving him $12.5 (actually $12.75) million a year," the official says. "He should take that offer before they change their minds."


...and then Stark’s co-worker, MFY lovah, and foolish promoter of the productive out, Buster Olney, yesterday reported long after Dirt Dogs that...

Two American League executives -- one had spoken with the Yankees, the other had been in contact with Martinez's agents -- told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark that Tuesday's meeting in Tampa was requested by Martinez's agent, Fernando Cuza.

The Red Sox are not going to pull a Tom Hicks and bid against themselves. Cuza and the good folks at SFX had to find another suitor. Boss Hog is the perfect choice. The other news of the day has an immediate impact on the future of the Sox - the signing of Cristian Guzman.

Guzman inked a great deal for him with the D.C. club for $16.8 million over four years. Jim Bowden also signed Vinny Castilla; it must be nice to spend other people’s money. Anyway, Guzman and Vizquel’s deals likely end the possibility of Orlando Cabrera returning to the Sox.

Lando should not accept the Sox presumed offer of, at most, two years plus an option. The smooth fielding and free swinging short stop should easily get a four year deal worth at least $25 million. The Sox will not match those terms.

On the positive side, the Old Town Team will certainly offer Lando salary arbitration, he will reject the offer and Theo and the braintrust will get an additional high draft pick in June. Thanks to Brian Sabean’s foolish strategy and Bowden being unaccountable to anyone, it ends any glimer of hope of signing Lando. The SS market has been flipped upside down; it should have been a soft market.

Tuesday, November 16, 2004

MVP, MVP, MVP

The A.L. MVP will be awarded later today. My choice is not one of the hometown heroes, but the man out who moved West last winter, Vlad Guerrero. I have refined my system for evaluating MVP candidates from stressing runs and R.B.I. to my own stat - Final Total Bases (FTB). Earning bases is the best means to evaluate a single player’s ability to assist his team in scoring runs.

The FTB is calculated as follows: Total Bases + Hit by Pitch – Grounded Into Double Plays + Stolen Bases – Caught Stealing + Bases on Balls. I calculated the FTB for all A.L. players with more than 70 walks or 300 Total Bases and their teams.

The top four were Vlad at 419, Big Papi with 418, Manny coming in at 417 and A-Hole at 404. But the top four as a percentage of their team were Vlad at 14.29%, Suzuki at 14.25% (it is so pompous of him and the Mariners to have his first name on his jersey), Tejada with 13.06% and A-Hole at 12.84%.

Since Vlad had the highest raw and percentage of his team’s FTB, he was the Most Valuable Player in the American League. Not one player is close enough in both standings to get into other secondary factors such as defense, leadership in the clubhouse, and a player’s salary as a percentage of the team’s budget. Vlad should be awarded the A.L. M.V.P.

Monday, November 15, 2004

WHERE'S THE ACTION AT?

"I think this is going to drag out until January and even February," Giants GM Brian Sabean says. "There will be more players signed after the first of the year than before," says another GM. "There will be another 40 non-tendered players on the market. And the shortstop market may take five or six weeks to sort itself out."

I fully agree with the forecast above. [It is ironic that Sabean is quoted since it is reported that he inked Omar Vizquel to a three-year deal! If you want to discuss that transaction, the Sox one (Billy Traber), Sox rumors (Brian Schneider - I have actually seen him play about 10 times), and of course this post, please feel free to leave a comment.] Very little movement will happen until after the holidays. Of course, the big names will get signed before the first of the year, but only a few may be signed by new clubs prior to December 7th – the deadline for clubs to offer their free agents salary arbitration. (Sport Retort has a very informative post and links regarding free agent signing compensation.)

Since most clubs are fearful of their free agents accepting salary arbitration thereby busting their budget for next season, many teams will not offer them the option. Thus, no compensation is required of the free agents’ new employer. Clubs will wait to see if players are offered arbitration before aggressively trying to sign their targets. Most clubs do not want to loose one or two of their high draft pick(s).

Many clubs have realized the value in attaining high draft picks. (The following scenario is based on ballpark salary assumptions and that the franchise drafts and develops players adequately – getting most of its high picks to the show.) For example, a first round pick earns a signing bonus of one million and takes four years to make it to the show. His total compensation over that term is roughly $1.2 million. If he is only a reserve player, his pre-salary arbitration/first three years earnings is about a million. Hence, the first rounder’s total compensation is $2.2 million (not discounted) for three years of Major League service or $.733 per season or Gabe Kapler’s salary the last couple of seasons. The risk or player’s compensation then becomes similar to an established MLB backup.

Of course, a franchise wants more production from a first round or sandwich pick than becoming a fourth outfielder. But if that is the downside, than it is a risk worth taking or not loosing. Thus, the transaction turns into a fairly low risk-high reward proposition for the franchise.

Tuesday, November 09, 2004

NOT SIGNING TEK IS NOT THE END OF THE WORLD

Jason Varitek's agent told WEEI Sports Radio this morning that the free agent Red Sox catcher wants a five-year contract with a no-trade clause -- terms the Sox are unlikely to offer.

The Sox can not afford to meet Tek’s demands, but some club will. (I had to rewrite this a bit given the above development over lunch. Now I kind of know how a real journalist feels.) Varitek is worth $50+ million over five years with a no-trade to some team just not our Sox. As I have said before, nearly all catchers do not age well, even Hall of Famers. Theo should walk away, look for an alternative/replacement for Varitek (see below) and begin the spin cycle, I mean public/fans relations campaign.

Theo needs to meet with David Littlefield soon. Littlefield has been trying to move Jason Kendall’s contract for years now. He has found no takers. Not many clubs budget for a $10 million catcher, but our Sox have likely set aside at least $8 mil. over the next three years.

Kendall is due $9.5 million in 2005, $10.5 in ’06 and $12.5 in ’07. Obviously, Kendall’s commitment is larger than the Sox budget, but Littlefield is desperate to move the contract. It is reasonable for the Sox to trade Minky owed $4.2 million ($3.75 + .45 option buyout) and BK’s salary of $6 million for Kendall + cash in 2006 and 2007. Littlefield will take about anything to get rid of the bulk of Kendall’s salary in 2006 and 2007. The Pirates gain payroll flexibility after next season by moving Kendall.

And the Sox get one of the most underrated catchers in the game. Defensively, Tek’s reputation is better than Kendall’s, but I have no clue how to measure a catcher’s value behind the plate. With the bat, Kendall is just as good as Tek. Kendall VORP over the last three seasons is 119.3 or 10.9 higher than Tek’s. Kendall certainly does not have the power numbers of Tek, but his game is getting on-base with a career mark of 387 OBP and 399 in his two most recently completed seasons. Both catchers have had similar value and it will likely remain that way in the future.

Unfortunately, Kendall’s comparables are just as crappy as Tek’s making both risky investments. On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest level of risk, Tek is about an 8.5 and Kendall is a 7. Kendall is less risky because he is younger (31 versus 33) and less of a financial commitment. Kendall is a better investment, all be it a below average one.

If the reports are correct, the Sox will be losing their leader in the clubhouse, which should not be taken lightly, but getting a catcher that will likely be just as productive offensively, another $8.7 million to spend and a first round draft pick isn’t the end of the world.

Monday, November 08, 2004

IT IS FREAKIN’ WINTER!

Due to the Sox Championship run, I had no ease into winter and so I forgot that the GM Meeting is this week. The Meeting is one of the first steps in winning the 2005 World Series. Championships are won over the winter and lost in the summer.

The Boston media attention, as well it should be, is focused on the Sox progress in resigning their free agents. It is certainly The Story, so I want to discuss a free agent that could be the best buy and a fit for the Red Sox Philosophy.

Troy Glaus has gotten some notice this offseason but not as much as he should. Glaus is a pure power hitter with patience at the plate. In 2004, Glaus’ Isolated Power was 324 or fourth in MLB. Glaus’ career IsoP is 244 or the same level as Gary Sheffield this past season. He also demonstrates discipline at the plate. Since Glaus’ first full season in the Show, he has not had an OBP lower than 350 and has averaged more than a BB per every 10 abs. At the age of 28, given a normal development curve, Glaus should be productive for a number of years like his comparables that include Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, and Harmon Killebrew.

Some clubs will be turned off by the high strikeout numbers and his shoulder injury that caused Glaus to miss a good portion of 2004. The Sox are not overly concerned with high K totals as demonstrated with, not only Bellhorn but Manny and Big Papi as well. Theo and company are too smart to get hung up a hitter's strikeout numbers.

As for the shoulder, it will only get stronger. Plus, the Sox wouldn't need Glaus to play the hot corner right away. He could work back into the position. The Sox just need him to mash and the shoulder was good enough to do just that in the post season. I think one of Glaus' dingers was just found in the bathroom of the Cambridgeport Saloon. Hey, they only can the john once a month.

Currently, Glaus is not a fit on the Red Sox roster. Mueller is valuable and cost effective at the hot corner with Youk as a backup. Millar and Minky are signed for 2004 and Big Papi is cemented as the Designated Hitter. But if Glaus can be inked at a number right for the Sox, then he will be rocketing balls onto and over Lansdown. Tito, Theo and the Trio will find at-bats for the Troy "some how…some way," as they did a few years ago for Ortiz and Mueller.

Other Notes

• Troy Brown is Tim Wakefield for the Pats; he’ll do anything for the TEAM.

• As for starting pitchers, the Sox should think about Jon Lieber and David Wells rather than Pavano and Radke. They are likely cheaper with similar results and styles - control/pound the strikezone type of pitchers.

Red Sox Nation is not for sale.

Friday, November 05, 2004

WHAT NOW? PART II

Everyone and their bro has an opinion on what happens to Red Sox Nation now that the Old Town Team has won a World Series Championship. (Note that I am watching Game 4 as I write this. I can't get enough of this.) Like all Nations, Red Sox Nation is a diverse group, but how you answer the following questions can give one a sense on how you will react as a member of the Nation.

• How long have your rooted for the Sox?
• When you describe the scene in 1946, 1967, 1975, 1986 and 1999, how vivid is your description?
• How many games did you miss watching or listening to last season?
• Have you ever missed work to watch a Sox game?
• Have you ever planned a vacation around the Sox schedule?
• What was your reaction to the hiring of Bill James?
• Do you read Dan Shaughnessy?
• Do you own a "Yankees Suck" or a similar t-shirt?
• What's your impression of WEEI?
• Before the postseason dingers, did you want Pokey or Bellhorn?
• And the biggest question: Did you believe in the Curse?

Unlike folks in the real media, I won't make specific generalizations about Red Sox Nation. Besides one: I think the Boston Red Sox World Series Championship brings closure for all members of the Nation. We have divorced ourselves from the past, but it will never be forgotten. The BIG difference is that the story now has a happy ending.

Red Sox history and our passion for the sport, as Bob Ryan eloquently describes...

...baseball has resided in the heart of Boston. While an entire nation has sold its soul to the violence and essential callousness of football, Boston has been a proud, stubborn holdout, preferring a more subtle, intricatesport appealing equally to the mind and the senses. If we are the only locale in America in which baseball is king, so be it.

is why a Red Sox fan will not become “Just Another Baseball Fan.”

Thursday, November 04, 2004

WHAT NOW? – PART 1

Yesterday was a tough day. I woke to learn that the world is going to have to endure another four years of George II, it was a Coors' icy 34 degrees (Is it possible to have ice form above the freezing temperature?), and I might be catching a cold. It was just a horrible day.

Folks, bear with me for a political rant. If you don't want to read it, then scroll ahead. (After reading my written rage, I probably offended everyone at least a little bit – for that I apologize. But this thing is my blog and it is a real blog, I have not Editor, bitch. Regardless, I promise this will be the last time I jump on my political soap box for sometime.)

John Kerry and my party, the donkeys, are a bunch of pussies. There I said it. I understand not wanting to politicize the worst tragedy in U.S. history, but the elephants did it in 2002. Does Max Cleland ring any bells? Couldn’t the donkeys learn something from George II “…fool me once, shame on ... shame on you. It fool me. We can't get fooled again."

Hello…! McKerry! You are not running for student council; you are running to be the leader of the world. Damn, the donkeys needed to fight fire with fire. Where was this theme?

George II did nothing to prevent 9-11 when he could have. 9-11 happened on George II's watch. We can not afford to give him another chance with our security. George II has not learned from his mistakes. We will be safer with McKerry.

It should have been everywhere. It should have been the focus of McKerry's attacks on George II. Turn George II's biggest asset into a weakness. The threat of terrorists is the number one issue. No one gives a $hit about jobs, health care or the deficit when you are worried about your life and your loved ones. (Yes, Clinton is to blame for 9-11, too, but the elephants can bring that up. Who cares? FYI – Clinton did not run in 2004.)

I give the elephants a ton of credit. They had a 2-7 off suit as starting cards against pocket ladies. The elephants won the hand by being extremely aggressive. They played a bad hand very well. The elephants made the donkeys piss themselves and throw in their ladies. They play the game much better than the donkeys.

I am now done with the donkeys. I can't take any more Clinton triangulation that has both parties vying for the five swing voters living outside of Disney World. The donkeys have lost their way and only a real liberal populist movement will attract the disenfranchised to vote. Forchristsake, we had near record breaking turnout at 60% and the elephants still won – much props - but talk about low expectations. We can't be a freaking democracy when 40% of the people have no voice!

El Guapo's Ghost will become an independent and the donkeys can forget about any more campaign contributions - bunch of jack asses! Damn, it was not supposed to be that long. $hit. I must sound like Lewis Black but not funny. Anyway back to your regularly scheduled program tomorrow.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

SCHEDULING NOTE

I am working on my final thoughts about the 2004 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. It will be posted by the end of the week.

The start of next week I’ll be attending to some El Guapo’s Ghost business matters and visually enhancing the site. I am trying to get it out of that Old Skhool Blog look; I’ve been waiting for the season to be completed.

At the end of the week, I’ll address the Red Sox rumors that the real sports media has already gotten into. Not only is fake sports media untrustworthy, but also tardy. In the meantime, if you are clamoring for my take on the Sox free agents, my view has not changed too much from last winter – Pedro, Tek, DLowe.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

PLEASE VOTE

Before I go to the polls, I realized that I can't vote for Theo. He is not 35, the minimum age, yet. Anyway, I think young voters, us, will make the difference in this election. We are going to have old school turnout numbers. I am 28 and this is the only year politics has been discussed at parties and it has been every one. Turnout is going to be HUGE.

Monday, November 01, 2004

PLEASE VOTE TOMORROW

Since I live in Vermont, where Kerry will win 60-40, I am writing in Theo Epstein for President. Yes, I am a registered donkey, but it is tough for me to vote for Kerry. He can't even make up his mind about the Sox. After learning Theo was a donkey too, he is getting my vote. I certainly can't pull the lever for Bush II. I admit he was given a tough hand (9/11, internet bubble, etc.) to play like his former baseball team's rotation, but unlike Buck Showalter, Bush II played his cards horribly squandering the surplus and goodwill around the globe. Bush II can't be trusted with our country's future.

Thank you - Red Sox!

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