El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

2011-12-15T21:03:00.003-05:00

Yawkey Way Is Home To A Top Front Office?

This Minor Details podcast with Alex Speier and KLaw got me thinking that the Red Sox are quick to implement winning baseball strategies from other teams. First, it was OBP from Oakland, and then it was defense from their rivals in Tampa. Now, it seems the Sox are copying the Rangers by converting relievers to starters.

The Sox still have interest in Andrew Bailey, according to Buster Olney, even after acquiring Mark Melancon. The acquisition of another back end reliever would likely push Daniel Bard and/or Alfredo Acceves to the rotation. But the Theo Epstein and Ben Cherrington era has not discovered a winning undervalued baseball skill or strategy. (The jury is somewhat still out on paying above slot in the latter rounds of the draft.) The Sox front office has not been ahead of the curve and it could be a reason the Olde Towne Team has only had a better record than the Yankees twice during Epstein-Cherrington regime. Better innovation would benefit Yawkey Way.

By-the-way, WTF is going on with the Red Sox SIGNIFICANT compensation from the Cubs. It is unlikely to be SIGNIFICANT now since both teams have made deals. The Red Sox should have never let Epstein leave without having compensation in place. Larry Lucchino got played.

2011-09-29T19:27:00.008-05:00

IT FEELS LIKE 2003

As side from a few, they Red Sox were terrible in Sept. If they were healthy or had a better farm system, they probably would have just been bad and gotten into the playoffs. Teams go into slumps. This one got out of hand primarily because Buchholz and Youkilis were out. But Sept is not the issue, it is the year long suck-a-tude of Crawford and Lackey.

Crawford's forecast to actual performance had to have a much bigger variance than anyone. Last year, he was a seven win player this year .4.

Lackey has been a bust. It was expected he would suck in the later two-thirds of his contract but not at the start. The Red Sox not having an alternative is one part bad luck, ineffective pre-hab or injury prevention and poor minor league pitching development.

Regardless, the Red Sox still have a strong core so an overhaul would be a shock. They need a true top of the rotation starter and a closer in 2012. This kind of sounds like 2003, no?

2011-09-25T18:21:00.008-05:00

THE STARTING PITCHING HAS SUCKED

The Red Sox problem is the ineptitude of John Lackey and Tim Wakefield (yeah, I’m calling out the second living Red Sox Saint). Both have been awful. Period.

The Sox had sufficient pitching depth and acquiring another arm in-season would seem to be imprudent, as Brian MacPherson wrote for the Projo.com. It appears that the Sox took all rationale steps in the off season to protect themselves against this very situation at the major league level. The issue that McPherson does not get into enough and probably warrants its own article is the lack of ready capable arms in the minors.

Relative to other development systems, the Red Sox could be doing just fine developing quality starters. But when you have a near perfect storm of injuries and ineffectiveness to spots 3-10 in the rotation, then everything needs to be analyzed including minor league development pipeline.

2011-08-22T19:10:00.004-05:00

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!

This four game series in Texas is not BIG. It is a possible October preview in name only. First off, the most obvious, the Red Sox will not be playing four in a row away from friendly Fenway in the playoffs. Second, Jon Lester should be on the bump in second season for the Sox. Third, Terry Francona is going to write Ortiz, Youkilis, and Ellsbury on his lineup card every night in October and that won’t happen over these next four games in Dallas. If the Sox and Rangers face off in the postseason, Texas will be facing a better club than the one they will see in the next four contests.

Other than making sure the team is healthy and ready for October baseball, the Sox need to make a decision on the corners in the outfield, as it is seemingly a result that is actionable (pitchers are unlikely to make it through waivers this August). Is Josh Reddick’s fifteen minutes of being an above average major league outfielder up? Aside from his home run yesterday, Carl Crawford’s timing at the plate appears to be horrid. Can he get on track in time for the playoffs? If the answer is no to either question, then Yawkey Way has to explore other options.

Internally, we know that Run DMcD is not the answer, although he can play the role of Bobby Keilty and Gabe Kapler. Unless J.D. Drew has found the Hot Tub Time Machine or had a procedure done in the Dominican, he probably is not the going to keep the line moving in October. Unlike in 2007, the organization does not have an Ellsbury to take time from Coco Crisp. Ryan Kalish could have been that player, but he must have gotten cursed like Jed Lowrie during that stop at Merlotte's. The Sox will need to trade for an outfielder. Get to work, Theo.

2011-08-20T09:44:00.002-05:00

Are You Ready For Some...October Baseball?!

Football is all the rage right now, but the MLB playoffs are fast approaching. Since it is likely that the Red Sox will be playing in October (knock on wood), the most important thing is to keep everyone healthy and fresh for the postseason. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Erik Bedard should not be pushed. Nothing is more important than having the top three starters ready to rock in the second season.

The return of Jed Lowrie and the acquisition of Mike Aviles allow Terry Francona the flexibility to give guys a day off or two in the dirty dog days of August before rosters expand. The Sox are being prudent by taking a conservative approach to player health whether it is David Ortiz, Marco Scutaro, etc. It is more important to have the thick lineup ready for October than ending up on top of the A.L. East at the end of the regular season.

The last objective should be getting Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon ready to pitch more than one inning in October. Three innings from the shutdown pen pair would allow Francona to matchup the rest of the relievers, if necessary, in the middle innings. We do not want Matt Albers getting the ball in the seventh up a run with the heart of the order ready to take their hacks off the journey man. With rosters expanded, Francona should have enough options to start transitioning Bard and Pap up to one plus innings with additional rest between appearances in the last week or two in September.

So if the Sox continue to play the B team, it is for the best. "Relax" and get ready for the October "laser show" and have some "muddy chicken" for the next six weeks. It is all about getting ready for the playoffs.

2011-07-04T05:00:00.000-05:00

CARLOS BELTRAN CAN BE THE RED SOX RIGHT-FIELDER

George: Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

Currently, the Red Sox have one glaring hole - right-field. Even though the Local Nine lead the world in most offensive categories, the trade winds are swirling to replace J.D. Drew, even more so than usual. But according to Peter Gammons on WEEI, the Red Sox are not getting Carlos Beltran or Michael Cuddyer. He asserts that the Sox can not take on any more money. Theo Esptein disputed that notion recently, although this winter he did state that the acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez played a key role in giving the club the financial flexibility to sign Carl Crawford. With this in mind, any potential acquisition will likely get more scrutiny from ownership since it will be above the budget.

The other asset usually a part of a deadline deal is minor league prospects. The Red Sox are not rich in this area either. The Olde Towne Team had three players make Baseball America's top 100 prospect list this winter - Jose Iglesias, Anthony Ranaudo, and Drake Britton. Of the three, only Ranaudo is living up to expectations. The Sox have prospects to trade but no asset another team will covet. The Olde Towne Team can not pull off another three prospect trade for an All-Star as they did this winter.

The Red Sox will need to find a unique situation to pull off a impact deal later this month. And the previously mentioned, Beltran provides that type of opportunity.

The Mets right-fielder has a number of clauses in his contract that push a trade to the Red Sox. First, Beltran can not be offered arbitration after the 2011 season. Hence, the Mets will not get any compensation when the former All-Star departs this winter as a free agent. The team from Queens needs to trade Beltran this season to get anything in return.

Beltran also has a no-trade clause. He can dictate which team will gain his services for the stretch run. If we assume the Scott Boras client wants to play for a team with a good shot at winning a World Series, then the Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox will top the list. The Mets will want to deal with the Red Sox rather than assisting one of their rivals. Sandy Alderson is calling Epstein first and often.

Finally, $5.5 million of Beltran's $18.5 million 2011 salary will be paid after this year. The outfielder will be paid roughly $3.2 million each year from 2012-2018. Without going all CPA in this space, the Mets can send the money necessary to keep the Red Sox under the luxury tax threshold in 2011. In exchange, John W. Henry can pick up a part of Beltran's deferred compensation.

Under the current rules, the future payments made by the Red Sox to Beltran will count against the cap the year they are paid (MLB may not even have a luxury tax in 2012 and beyond with a new CBA). The Red Sox can avoid paying additional, if any, luxury tax with the assistance from the Mets.

With the money even, the Red Sox and Mets can use last year's Lance Berkman trade as a starting point for the appropriate prospect(s) going to Queens for the right-fielder. Since the dollars will be even, the Mets should get less than the three star prospect (Mark Melancon) and low level minor leaguer (Jimmy Paredes) that the Astros received, as $4 million was sent to the Bronx. Assuming the market for Beltran is as limited like for Berkman in 2010, then the Sox can afford to move that type of prospect(s).

The Red Sox can get Carlos Beltran or I could be crazy like Costanza. Regardless, the outfielder's contract allows for Yawkey Way and the Mets to get creative and work out a deal. Epstein and Alderson can get this done.

2011-05-30T10:08:00.003-05:00

THE SUMMER IS NOT LOST

The Red Sox have been rolling of late going thirteen and three over their last sixteen games. Everything has been clicking. The Olde Towne Team has even gotten lucky. They won five out of six one-run games. The start of the season slump has been erased.

Over this dominant stretch of the season, the workmen like starts from Tim Wakefield and Alfredo Aceves have been a pleasant surprise and a stark contrast to the double roller coaster of John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka. The bottom of the rotation needs to keep the Sox in the game and the offense can go the rest. With Lackey and Felix Doubront on their ways back, they should have enough options to find at least one an adequate performance from the back of the rotation every time through the rotation.

Stability from the starters and with about a third of the season in the bank, we can reasonably see Red Sox baseball in October at the end of the 162 game tunnel. And I won’t need to find a real summer hobby. Now if I can find some good fried clams in Vermont, the summer will complete.

2011-04-29T20:05:00.003-05:00

NOT TOO MANY SOUTHPAWS

With John Lackey seemingly finding what Ponce Deleon could not and we got the “National Treasure” Diasuke Matzusaka (now injured?) and not his alter ego “Shame of the State”, the Red Sox have the ability to continue to roll over the competition. Hopefully, the Olde Towne Team can overcome their second slow start in back-to-back seasons.

At a minimum, the Sox should evaluate if their Spring Training process is a factor in getting out of the gate slowly. But that is a question for Theo, Tito and their minions over the winter. The latest concern is the lineup being too left-handed making it vulnerable to southpaw starters.

The Red Sox bench has been assembled to mitigate the issue some hitters have against left-handed pitchers. Mike Cameron and Darnell McDonald are options for two out of the three outfield spots when a southpaw is on the mound. Marco Scutaro starting at shortstop can have a domino effect by giving another infielder a half a day off at DH thereby sitting David Ortiz versus lefties. As the roster currently stands, the Red Sox could have a starting nine with only two left-handed batters, but Terry Francona has to be willing to put the plan into action.

2011-04-16T15:22:00.011-05:00

THE PANIC BUTTON HAS BEEN FOUND BUT WE DON'T NEED TO HIT IT JUST YET

A nearly yearly objective of Red Sox is to build a baseball team that has a high probability of winning ninety-five games and making the playoffs. It was a near universal notion that the 2011 Olde Towne Team was going to accomplish the above goal. As we know, it has been a very rough start. So the question has to be asked: can the Red Sox still make the postseason?

The answer is yes. We have a lot of Red Sox baseball to still watch and players with a track record produce at a similar rate to the back of their baseball cards or player page come the end of September. Even the riskier players – the ones in their mid-thirties – that could have drops in performance, the Red Sox have a number of internal options. If J.D. Drew, David Ortiz or Marco Scutaro can’t produce as they have in the past, Mike Cameron, Darnel McDonald, Ryan Kalish, Jed Lowrie, or Jose Igelasis could step in. This team will score runs. The issue is run prevention and specifically, starting pitching.

A simple and optimist projection for the rotation would be that games Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Josh Beckett start, the Red Sox would win sixty-five percent of those ninety-six games (32 GS each) for sixty-two wins. The remaining sixty-six games would feature John Lackey (32 GS), Daisuke Matsuzaka (25 GS) and Tim Wakefield (9 GS). The Red Sox would win half of this trio’s starts, which brings the Olde Towne Team’s win total to ninety-five games. But given the terrible starts and stuff from Lackey and Matsuzaka, neither should be counted on to even with fifty percent of their starts without significant improvement. They have shown nothing so far. The Red Sox need to prepare for other rotation options in and outside of the organization.

The team’s poor start does not give them the luxury of waiting for Lackey or Matsuzaka to work out their issues on every fifth day. The duo is too important. A club cannot think of themselves as playoff contenders when roughly a third of their games they find themselves behind the eight ball after only a few innings of play.

If neither shows improvement in their next start or two, Felix Doubront and Wakefield should take a regular turn. The Olde Towne Team cannot be patient with Lackey or Matsuzaka, as they have with other veterans that get off to a slow start. The Red Sox may need to make a tough decision or two in the next couple of weeks.

2011-03-20T19:10:00.000-05:00

THE FANTASY LIFE

With many owners drafting fantasy baseball teams in the near future, I wanted to discuss some of my unconventional thoughts on the subject. The first can be applied to both draft and auction formats; the other only in auctions.

In most fantasy baseball leagues, pitchers are not valued enough. Before adjusting for the added health risk of the throwing a baseball too often, all pitchers should be valued the same as all hitters because they contribute to the same number of scoring categories in the vast majority of leagues. Since most leagues have fewer eligible pitching spots than hitters, pitchers should be valued more than hitters. In my League, we play nine hitters and five pitchers with two bench spots so the maximum number of pitchers that can contribute is seven. All things being equal, pitchers are worth a minimum 28% more than a hitter in my League.

Of course, not all things are equal. A hitter’s fantasy statistics are less dependent on their teammates compared to a pitcher’s. A hitter’s fantasy production will be less prone to year-to-year fluctuations than a pitcher’s. And we already touched upon the increased health risk. Hence, a fantasy pitcher offers more risk and reward than the equivalent hitter. But if you play in a keeper league, as I do, holding onto a low draft pick or a cheap good pitcher can be an advantage since your team is minimizing risk (high round pick or low cost) with the same amount of reward or 28% over a hitter in my League.

When my team was going nowhere last year, I implemented the strategy mentioned above by trading for David Price and Clay Buchholz, who each cost only $2 or 2% of the budget. The newly acquired pair teamed with Neftali
Feliz to be the foundation of my club and auction strategy going forward – spend on hitters since spending on high risk-high reward pitchers is not necessary. This fantasy strategy can be applied to many leagues.

Another plan that I used and haven’t seen floating around in the series of tubes was to acquire two completely different hitters. The opposites can complement one another and cost you less than two hitters without any major flaws. My combination of Mark Reynolds and Ichiro Suzuki should average out to 270-75-20-75-20 at a cost of $26 or 26% of the budget. This is a play that should only be tried in auctions. It is too risky for draft formats.

Good luck to all owners not in my League.

2011-03-07T17:59:00.003-05:00

NEITHER THE RED SOX NOR THE YANKEES IS A MODEL OF HEALTH AND WELLNESS

After enduring a season of injuries that culminated in the lack of October Red Sox baseball, it is time to take a closer look the impact player health will have on the 2011 season. Will Carroll has been publishing his Team Health Reports for a number of years now that assess the risk a player will have an injury. And it is our good fortune that Sports Illustrated has them online for free.

The Red Sox report did not have many surprises nor did the Olde Towne Team’s chief rival, the MFY. The Sox have a number of high profile players with moderate (a yellow light or 30 to 50 percent chance of injury) to high risk (a red light or a better than 50 percent shot of getting hurt). In contrast, the MFY have fewer players that should be of concern.

The entire Sox infield is coming off injury plagued campaigns and are all rated as yellow lights. On a positive note, Jed Lowrie can fill in at any spot, but isn’t a model of health himself. Yamaico Navarro, who made an appearance last year, would be next in line unless the future gold glover, Jose Iglesias, makes tremendous progress with the wood. The Sox infield has some health risk, but the versatility of some starters and the backup make it unlikely that Navarro or Iglesias see significant playing time.

Even though Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Drew are red lights and Mike Cameron, at best, is a yellow, the Sox outfield should be productive throughout the season. Ellsbury had a freakish injury that is unlikely to happen again this season. The center fielder’s “toughness” has been questioned like Drew’s but Cameron and Darnell McDonald can fill in adequately for either over a DL stint. Carl Crawford rounds out the outfield and is a green light. (I still can’t believe he is a Red Sox player, btw.)

Jon Lester is also a go-go green. Clay Buchholz and John Lackey are yellows. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are stop lights. Tim Wakefield will get the call if one of the five starters can’t take a turn, but like his infield counterpart has had his injury issues too. Felix Doubront, who was shut down due to elbow tightness, has been erased from the seventh spot. The uber Spring Training hyped Andrew Miller should be next in line. If Doubront or Miller are making regular turns in the rotation, then the Sox will be competing with the MFY for another starter in July.

Unlike the Red Sox, the MFY top position players are low health risks. Brett Gardner is a “low yellow” or near green light. The relative lack of quality backups should not hamper the Bronx Bombers. (Catchers and designated hitters are excluded as they are usually on the opposite ends of the health spectrum - catchers - red and DHs - green. Relievers are also not discussed here since they are all “…like a box a chocolates.”)

As for the guys that start the game, C.C. Sabathia is a horse that gets a green but beyond him each is a red light. The other starters not only need to pitch better than many are projecting but also stay healthy.

Bet on the Yankees being in on every possible starter (Chris Carpenter, Francisco Liriano, etc.) from now until August 31, 2011 as well as a power struggle between Brian Cashman and the brothers Stein. This is not your father’s Yankees.

2011-02-06T13:32:00.002-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand: Super Sunday in April: First Impressions Matter and MLB Screws Up Changing Opening Day.

2011-01-30T13:21:00.000-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand: The NFL Is A More Competitively Balanced League Than MLB But Not By Much.

2011-01-23T10:25:00.000-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand: Quant Going Qual - Optimist and Pessimist Take On Adrian Gonzalez.

2011-01-15T11:13:00.001-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand: Quant Going Qual - Optimist and Pessimist Takes On Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury

2010-12-19T12:16:00.011-05:00

THE NINE FINEST TWEETS FROM THE LAST TWO WEEKS

In honor of Carl Crawford becoming a Red Sox player, here are my nine finest tweets from last two weeks:

1) U can always tell a wantabe new england sports fan since they will describe the #redsox #celtics #bruins as boston not sox, c's and b's

2) He must b smokin pot mRT @ShayTotten: Pot meet kettle: Kiss sez rprt critical of #BTV Telecom "lacks credibility" #vt

3) #Redsox r going to b sick next season #thatisall

4) What a day! Festivus is on TBS HD and I am recording it! I do believe it is the best sitcom episode ever. #seinfeld #festivus

5) @StatMagician Rashard Lewis is a PEDs player and after caught his production started to drop. It is always forgotten outside of #mlb media double standard

6) RT @SethTweets Congrats to @BerniesCrew for giving bloggers around baseball a good name!! Nice scoop on Greinke to #Brewers! Nice deal for #Royals too!

7) @Espn please continue to introduce "new" stats like war or wins above replacement.

8) It seems #celtics could fit Dwight Howard in 12/13 season. wouldn't Howard rather play with Rondo, Pierce, etc than Gasol, Kobe or Amare?

9) RT @AmyKNelson straight cash, homie RT @espn Fill in the blank: @redsox + Adrian Gonzalez + Carl Crawford = ________

2010-12-18T12:24:00.000-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand: Dan Wheeler Is Bringing His Slider To The Red Sox

2010-12-11T10:34:00.001-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand of the American League: The Yankees Have Lost Their Mojo Two heads are not better than one.

2010-12-05T11:21:00.006-05:00

THE NINE FINEST TWEETS FROM LAST WEEK

In honor of Adrian Gonzalez close to becoming a Red Sox player, here are my nine finest tweets from last week:

1) @jorgearangure Gonzalez’s value or $17m + 2 picks smells a lot like Lowrie, Rizzo, and a A ball propsect like Tejeda, Middlebrooks, Fuentes

2) Not saying Russell Martin > Tek but y not wait to sign post non tenders?

3) Wasn't the Red Sox and VMart about $2 mil/yr apart or the same money they signed Tek for next yr? I am just saying.

4) RT @WojYahooNBA: Even LeBron isn't buying the "Akron hates you" chant. // Doesn't he literally own Akron?

5) RT @SI_JonHeyman Red Sox do not trust Papelbon. first they shopped him, then, word is they went for Rivera // This is something to watch.

6) RT @bostonmagazine Give Bill Russell a Damn Statue! And RT if you agree!!

7) RT @danwelch73: How the hell is a SNL "Best of Jimmy Fallon" special 2 hours long? Seems to be 1:59:58 too long. // at least he has the Roots on his show

8) Red Sox still in a bridge yr. Kalish, Doubrant, Iglesias r still round to take over '11-12 for Drew, Papelbon-Bard to close, Scutaro/Lowrie.

9) Red Sox starting 8 no catchers avg OBP/SLG over last 3 yrs vs LHP 368/457 vs RHP 367/483. no big diff. Ortiz, Cameron have offsetting splits.

2010-12-04T13:04:00.001-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand of the American League: The Wait Is Over…Adrian Gonzalez to be a Red Sox Player

2010-11-28T17:36:00.004-05:00

HOW MANY DAYS UNTIL THE START OF SPRING TRAINING?

Since it is starting to feel like winter, I am day dreaming of spring training. Unfortunately, a trip to Fort Myers is not in the cards this year.

The last and only time I packed up my suitcase for Red Sox spring training was back in 2008. We didn’t get to see a game because the Olde Towne Team was playing in Japan. But it was cool hanging out at the minor-league complex. Ryan Kalish, Jed Lowrie and others were right next to me on their way to the practice fields.

If you are going to head south for the Sox, I have a tip and some other notes on travel:

* Do not stay near City of Palms Park. It is in kind of a sketchy neighborhood.

* If you have extra time, take the cruise to Key West. It is a wonderful and unique town in an increasing homogeneous America.

* Use a GPS to help find your way around.

* If you like to sleep when traveling like me, purchase a neck pillow. It makes sitting sleeping so much more tolerable. I am going to try the Smooth Trip Hedbed Inflatable one since it is hard to pack a pillow in your carry-on.

2010-11-24T09:59:00.005-05:00

VICTOR MARTINEZ IS A TIGER

I was half right. I predicted the correct contract terms for Victor Martinez, but I never thought the Red Sox would get outbid by the Tigers. C’mon…Really?!

The Yankees - yes. In certain circumstances the Mets, both L.A. teams, the Giants, Cubs, Rangers and Phillies, but the Tigers? By picking up David Ortiz’s option, the Sox demonstrated that they were not opposed to paying an over thirty DH $12.5 million per season. Martinez would probably be just a hitter in the final year. So what gives?

Perhaps, Yawkey Way has finally learned not to give old catchers long-term contracts? But it doesn’t seem like they are applying the theory correctly as Martinez will not strictly be behind the dish at the end of the deal.

Maybe, they see something in Jarrod Saltalamacchia because his numbers are not impressive at all? He has not hit since 2008...in AAA...in a good hitters league...in 64 plate appearances.

Could it be that acquiring the Tigers first-round pick tipped the scales for the Red Sox, since it is being reported that 2011 is going to be a deep draft? Also that the next CBA is likely to significantly change and possibly eliminate free agent compensation; thereby making picks in 2011 even more valuable than in the past? And the Olde Towne Team wants to stock up on picks because their most valuable assets on the farm are going to be traded for a mid-twenties middle of the order bat? Boy, I hope so.

2010-11-14T10:49:00.002-05:00

PRINCE FIELDER OR ADRIAN GONZALEZ AGAIN

Last week I wrote that the Red Sox should not trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but the more debatable point was that they should sign Prince Fielder next winter instead of the Padres‘ first baseman. The basis of my argument was that the Milwaukee’s slugger is younger with better comparable hitters and would not drop off as fast as Gonzalez with the bat.

The data and my calculations back up my assertion. In 2012, Fielder is projected to put up a 139 OPS+ at age twenty eight and then 137, 134, 124, 113, 116. By comparison, Gonzalez’s forecast is 142 OPS+ as a thirty year-old, and then 132, 116, 128. They look like similar hitters in 2012-2015, but many of Gonzalez’s comparables - and for that matter Fielder’s - were essentially out of baseball after the age of thirty three. Even after applying the Brewer first baseman’s comps to account for Petco, A_Gone has a projection that is only slightly better and still has the beyond thirty three issue.

Since both are likely to get more than a four year contract, the data suggests that Gonzalez is a riskier acquisition than Fielder. The Brewer first baseman’s bad body and lesser defensive reputation than A_Gone’s would seem to put on even ground a year away from free agency. I'll still take the younger guy looking for a break out season in the first two years of the contract.

***

For the numbers geeks, the projection calculation:

1) The forecast is calculated by first finding the player’s baseline production. It is simply a 60/30/10 model.
(YrOPS+ * 60%) + (Yr-1OPS+ * 30%) + (Yr-2OPS+ * 10%)
Then doing the same for each comparable hitter at the same age of the player to be projected.
Yr = most recent year

2) For each comp, the rate of change in OPS+ from their baseline is calculated through the end of their career or the age to be forecast. Each year’s rate of change is weighted based on their comp score to calculate a weighted average rate of change for each age to be projected.
(OPS+ - BL) / BL * CS

3) The weighted average rate of change for each age is applied to the player’s baseline production to find his forecast.
WavgRC * BLP

2010-10-29T11:02:00.004-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand: The Red Sox Philosophy Will Have a Greater Impact on Player Acquisition Than the Purchase of Liverpool

2010-10-11T13:21:00.004-05:00

FRENCH PRESS COFFEE REVIEW

Since our last deal with CSN Stores went well, we have joined forces again to review another product to be named later in another post (PTBNL-IAP). But first, I recently got complimentary soft spa pillows from CSN. They were fluffier than my past sleeping pillow, so it took a few days to get used to and now I am enjoying them. The new pillows have made me think about purchasing a new bed room set. I have been clicking around at bed sets but I’m going to wait until a few other things get sorted out.

Another complimentary product I received was a Bodum Chambord 8 Cup French Press Coffeemaker with Shatterproof Carafe. It makes a damn good cup of joe! The Press is easy to clean and no filter waste. My only issue, and this could be with all French Presses…this is my first, is that I need to heat up my coffee after it brews. I add hot water not boiling so it cools down quickly after brewing. This product could be a solution and I might have to give it a try.

2010-10-08T16:58:00.001-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand: The Red Sox Should Spend on a Reliever

2010-10-06T16:56:00.006-05:00

CASH MONEY HAS MOVED ON TO MINNY

Since the Patriots are probably not going deep in the playoffs this year and Randy Moss will be playing for another team next season, it made sense to trade the future HOFer. Without Ty Warren and all the youth on the field, the defense was unlikely to be good enough to hold down playoff teams. The Patriots needed to get something for Moss and they did. But Bill Belichick should have traded Moss before the start of the season similar to Richard Seymour last year. The Patriots could have gotten more for the deep threat. Sixteen games of Moss is worth more than twelve. With 2010 not a Super Bowl or bust season, then Moss should have been traded earlier for more than a third-round pick.

2010-10-01T08:35:00.001-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand: Resigning Adrian Beltre Should Not Be a Priority the Red Sox Have Many Other Options

2010-09-08T16:16:00.009-05:00

CSN STORES GIVEAWAY!

Recently, I was approached by CSN Stores to review a product and have a giveaway to my readers. In order to be eligible for the giveaway, tell me about your favorite part of the Red Sox season by commenting below, emailing me at elguaposghost@hotmail.com or tweeting @elguaposghost. I will pick the most colorful story and preference will be given to funny entries. The giveaway is a $35 gift certificate!

CSN Stores have an unbelievable array of products drom Barbecue Grills to Dog Beds to Bistro Sets and everything in between.

As I mentioned in a previous post, I will be reviewing a Bodum Stainless Steel French Press in the near future. Simply: coffee is good.

2010-09-07T09:43:00.006-05:00

COFFEE GOOD

I love a good cup of coffee like most folks. Recently, I have been looking around for a french press and decided to give this one from AllModern.com a try. Make coffee at home so you don't end up like this guy...

2010-09-04T10:18:00.004-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand of the American League: The Glass is Half Empty and Half Full. The Red Sox strong foundation gives them tremendous flexibility to build the 2011 club this winter.

2010-08-04T14:40:00.004-05:00

THE NINE FINEST TWEETS FROM LAST WEEK...OR SO

1) Will Ferrell was hilarious on The Daily Show. I want a hour of that and not 2 hours of his crappy movies. Btw, Your Welcome America was great.

2) There goes the best QB ever to win 1 Super Bowl, Brett Farve..oh wait, my bad, I mean the 2nd best. #peytonmanning

3) RT @BloombergNews Deficits Don't Matter as #Geithner Growth Gets Record Low Yields During Expansion - http://ow.ly/2gox3

4) RT @immortalkid Think it ridiculous Mike Cameron is being judged as a terrible signing based on an unforeseeable injury that he busted ass to play through.

5) It is political corruption day @ Fenway or as others call it Rhode Island Day.

6) Hope Red Sox are happy with draft pick(s) as compensation for Adrian Beltre. I can't see him not being claimed by the Twins or White Sox. This could be a miscalculation by Theo?

7) The Red Sox big trading deadline score is a AAA catcher who is unlikely to be in the Show before 9/1, then you know Yawkey Way isn't all in.

8) Red Sox need to play 614 ball in next 57 games or win nearly every series to total 95 wins and then we need the Rays to play 500 ball for 94 wins…unlikely.

9) Now that Youk is out, can Red Sox please SELL!

2010-07-24T16:36:00.005-05:00

THE NINE FINEST TWEETS FROM LAST WEEK

1) Is it wrong that I root for Yankees and Rays to get hurt and play 20 inning games when they face off?

2) RT @joe_sheehan: Just bought MacBook Pro. Already feel 21% cooler, 16% better-looking, 9% more liberal, 5% more creative.

3) I find it interesting that MLB says will test minor leaguers for HGH when A-Rod is approaching 600 hr. Coincidence? Not

4) RT @SevenDaysJobs: VT Unemployment rate dips to 6.0%, http://bit.ly/azRnAe // The drop is due to a larger drop in labor force than employed; NOT creating jobs

5) Cool story of 13-yr-old girl who uses knuckleball learned from Niekro to dominate

6) Dice-K needs to have a game with K/BB > 2 vs a real lineup or NOT A's, Cle, Tor for me to believe in him.

7) If u want single payer health care in VT, then u need a plan to retain and recruit health care professionals.

8) RT @jorgearangure MLB should jump on this CFB/agent controversy and go into inner cities and say "Hey you can get paid at age 17 in our sport!"

9) If @mcuban team wins the Rangers, then a new RSN has to b on the table that features the A.L. West leaders and the Mavs giving him a cash cow like NESN and YesNetwork.

2010-07-19T13:04:00.007-05:00

THE SUNNY SIDE FOR THE SOX ON THE LEFT COAST

A reason to be optimist regarding the road trip is that Oakland, Seattle and Anaheim are not good. It is not all doom and gloom as many are penning.

Oakland is a 500 baseball team. Other than Kurt Suzuki and Mark Ellis, no other position player would be starting ahead of any Red Sox player who will see the field in this series.

Seattle is a bad team. Now that Cliff Lee is in Texas, they are even worse. And the Olde Towne Team will apparently miss Felix Hernandez on this trip to the Pacific Northwest. They should win the series at Safeco.

The LAA of A is really a below 500 ball club and should not be feared at all, except for Jared Weaver’s start. He appears to be making the leap to a legit ace. Weaver is averaging more than strikeout per inning with a K/BB ratio greater than five. The biggest changes from Weaver’s 2007-09 baseline seasons is that he has found a way to get out lefties. They are hitting only 543 OPS against the younger Weaver versus 772 in 2007-2009. He is also throwing his curve ball more. It will be interesting to see if he is throwing it more to southpaws as a back door breaking ball like Jon Lester does to RHB.

Other than the Weaver start in the O.C., the Red Sox should not be underdogs in any game during this road trip. Oakland, Seattle and LAA of A are not good baseball teams.

2010-07-17T12:31:00.004-05:00

THE NINE FINEST TWEETS FROM LAST WEEK

1) Why is John Lackey getting a free ride in a fancy car? He signs a huge contract and has been a tad above terrible for the Red Sox.

2) Lackey show me swings-and-misses. The data suggests your stuff is not as sharp as last yr. I want to stop hating you.

3) RT @SamMillerOCR He just barely missed it. Must've been to his left. RT @jessespector Derek Jeter missing Bob Sheppard's funeral is inexcusable.

4) I’m surprised that the marketing gurus on Yawkey Way didn't have the rehabbing Red Sox play at Fenway vs. the Pawsox. “…tickets start at only $10 or the same price as movie."

5) @AmyKNelson Ask Will Ferrell if he plans and tries to make crappy movies or does it just happen?

6) A must read RT @GlobeEricWilbur: Warning signs ahead?

7) RT @HackswithHaggs Does it make me feel old that Rogers Centre is advertising an 80's Night at the ballpark and showing footage from RBI Baseball? Yes it does

8) Nissan’s Electric Car video - It gets up to 100miles on a full charge. Since most drive only 40 miles per day, it could work for most two car families.

9) R.I.P. George Steinbrenner and thank you for increasing my dislike for the Yankees. It made 2004 so much sweeter.

2010-07-09T07:53:00.001-05:00

My latest for Fire Brand of the AL: The Redsox and Royals could be trading partners

2010-07-08T17:02:00.008-05:00

THE FINEST NINE TWEETS FROM LAST WEEK OR SO

1) It is about demand not deficits and stimulus has to be without a timetable or no surge in private investment http://bit.ly/9vKoht

2) RT @alexspeier Youkilis on Ellsbury: 'It doesn’t matter if you’re hurt or not. You should be out there cheering on your team.' http://bit.ly/dBTfwv

3) Japan treasure boxes of chocolates? Because with the "national treasure" "you never know what your going to get." #forrestgump #Dice-K

4) RT @danwelch73: *BREAKING NEWS* Seibu Lions have announced a recall on their Daisuke Matsuzaka model. Details to come...

5) I loathe Kobe Bryant but if he wins 2 more times could he turn his attention to kickball for next #worldcup...thinking crazy headers!

6) The part about @chrisbosh and @dwadeofficial playing for the Heat is that I get to hate Pat Riley again.

7) I'm disappointed that the LBJ announcement is not on PayPerView. He is leaving money on the table.

8) RT @btvarthop: #BTV Art Hop registration is open. Download forms, register online, get info: http://bit.ly/arthopregistration

9) You can't stop EP a.k.a. Eric Patterson! You can only hope to contain the career minor leaguer, Rays!

2010-07-02T10:24:00.003-05:00

Check out my latest for Fire Brand of AL: The Offense Has Carried The Club And Now It Is the Rotation’s Turn

2010-06-20T11:08:00.014-05:00

THE NINE FINEST TWEETS FROM LAST WEEK

1) The Lakers on a “Yankee” bus - further proof both teams are working for the devil.

2) Dear Sports Media, The Celtics 17 banners trumps all conversations about the NBA's best franchise. Please proceed with filling up air time.

3) RT @AmyKNelson: Hearing about violence in LA, makes me appreciate being in New Orleans when Saints won. Just pure joy.

4) RT @Pflanns: Just saw Maria Menounos in bedazzled Pierce jersey.// here is a pic via my TV on CSNNE

5) @HackswithHaggs it is time for John Lackey's free ride in this town to end. He has been such a disappointment.

6) Could Felix Doubront eventually be part of the Red Sox pen by throwing his fastball and change from the left side then go back to SP next year?

7) After @CouncilorKaplan’s child was harassed on the phone for voting in favor of ending city business with Arizona, I thought she may needed a laugh - @billmaher crowned AZ the stupidest state watch here

8) Mario Batali on Charlie Rose affirms my decision to wait before going to the Farm House Tap & Grill in Burlington, VT. Batali says 3 months.

9) It looks like both Beckett and Ellsbury are scheduled to return after the All-Star Break. Is a big run coming after the break?

2010-06-13T09:22:00.010-05:00

THE NINE FINEST TWEETS FROM LAST WEEK

1) Dear Readers, I'm looking for position in Financial Planning & Analysis. I have 10 yrs experience. Any help is appreciated - resume

2) I hate the Lakers but I have much respect for Andrew Bynum playing well with a torn meniscus. He is a Laker that isn't spongy.

3) Classic Red via @SurvivingGrady:Nerds like me do..makes passes at girls-and NESN commentators-who wear glasses.

4) RT @thesulk: Women wearing Kobe jerseys think she was asking for it.

5) Ellsbury is @API for a min of two weeks, then a minors rehab, I would not be surprised if we don’t see him again until after the All-Star Break.

6) Drinking Goose Island IPA for the first time in sometime. It is great! I’ll have to get to Plattsburgh, NY to buy and drink more.

7) @becks58 I wouldn't be surprised to learn ESPN didn't communicate the USA-England kick off time but pre-game start time on purpose so we watch ads.

8) @denisleary what's up with you in a Rescue Me commercial with Jeter? Here is the proof:

9) Top notch story on draft strategy RT @alexspeier: ...Specifically, how Red Sox '06 draft created need for 'the bridge'

2010-06-05T12:03:00.006-05:00

THE NINE FINEST TWEETS FROM LAST WEEK

1) What gets analyzed more LeBron James’ interview with Larry King or Elena Kagan's upcoming Senate hearing?

2) Who is worse Laker or Yankees fans? Of course, the Jack Nicholsons of the world are a special type of DBs. Haha

3) Oil Spill was caused by BP not a US government institution. US government is not in the oil drilling business; difference between Katrina

4) From @Ken_Rosenthal re: david ortiz - gm says "It’s the biggest turnaround I’ve ever seen.”

5) Interesting Via @bottomlinesox Dice-K, Lackey, Beckett signed long term, aging, Red Sox could be in trouble going fwd.

6) RT @drjefflo: had my Chinese food in honor of Red

7) If a computer can do the job better than an ump, then MLB should move in that direction. The game is so far behind re: tech. Watch tennis.

8) Paging Peter Griffin via @TLTickets: Kiss tickets are on sale today for select dates in the US-miss out on presales

9) Twitter got Rondo-ed!!!!! Follow @RajonRondo

2010-06-02T20:46:00.004-05:00

THE FINALS - CELTICS NEED GREAT GUARD PLAY

Ron Artest has historically been able to contain Paul Pierce at the small forward position. At the other forward spot, Kevin Garnett has shut down each starting four throughout the playoffs. Michael Beasley averaged 10.4 points in the five playoff games versus the Celtics and KG. During the year, his scoring mean was 14.8 or 4.4 fewer points. The Big Ticket and the C’s also keep Antawan Jamison and Rashard Lewis below their scoring averages - 6.9 and 5.9, respectfully. If the forward trends continue into The Finals, the two offensive forwards - Pau Gasol and Pierce - will have a tough time putting up big numbers. (Other than in the Cleveland series, when KG had either a quickness or size advantage, he has struggled offensively.) Hence, the Celtics guards will need to be huge against Kobe Bryant and others.

Whomever is not being checked by Bryant has to be a force and the offense must run through that guard. Either Rondo (BTW, when did he become a one name star?) has to create off the dribble or Ray Allen has to come off baseline picks to knock down jumpers. Derek Fisher can not guard anyone and has to be exploited for the Celtics to bring home banner #18.

X-Factors/Questions:

1) The Centers: The fluid in Andrew Bynum’s knee is back after being drained. If he does not play or plays fewer minutes, it limit’s the Lakers rebounding advantage, puts Kendrick Perkins on Gasol and gives KG an easier match up with Lamar Odom. Perkins is one technical foul away from being suspended a game. Withough Perk, the Celtics have an issue in the paint and could further expose Glen Davis to the length of the Lakers.

2) If Bryant takes Rondo, does Phil Jackson play Shannon Brown at 6-4 to have a taller player try to disrupt Allen’s jump shot? Allen will destroy Fisher.

3) Does a role player unexpectedly go unconscious from downtown in a quarter to steal a game like Rasheed Wallace, Derek Fisher, Nate Robinson, Jordan Farmar?

Prediction:

Going with more heart than head, Celtics in seven. Bynum is ineffective, Bryant runs out of gas and we get another parade. BEAT LA! BEAT LA! BEAT LA!

2010-05-23T18:12:00.013-05:00

FINEST NINE TWEETS FROM THE LAST WEEK

1) Lester more and more reminds me of the young Pettitte with better velocity and change.

2) LOL RT @jorgearangure: He's going to get somebody pregnant tonight RT @Ledger_Yankees: Tracy Morgan dancing to some music here at the park.

3) As side from Cs, best news I've gotten in about a month Red Sox RT @bruceallen: Kevin Millar joins NESN as Studio Analyst on Red Sox games.

4) Lol RT @leedeeaah: Is he wearing 3D glasses from the movies? Hahah! R those sunglasses from the future?

5) Perk can smile? RT @ThatSportsBabe: RT @nbamusings: I just voted for this photo, check it out

6) If Buchholz continues to pitch this well and everything else stays constant, the Red Sox #1 and #2 starters will be paid the least.

7) Pedroia is so good at the plate that I don't appreciate how good he is with the leather.

8) Could Yu Darvish be thinking about changing course and come to MLB?

9) Sitting front row behind home plate, Miguel Cabrera v Jon Lester so I’ll read the news paper. WTF

2010-05-14T10:31:00.000-05:00

BUY, SELL, HOLD

Even after a 14-12 stretch for the Red Sox, I’m not hitting the panic button yet. I don’t think the Red Sox make the playoffs although they do still have a shot at the postseason. My opinion could change after May 26th. As of right now, I’m holding Yawkey Way stock. But the Olde Towne Team has to kick some ass in the next thirteen games - eleven on the road - against the top teams in the A.L. and the two-time defending N.L. Champs, the Phillies. This stretch will be a barometer for the Red Sox season.

I’m buying the Celtics. They match up relatively well against the Magic’s three top offensive weapons - KG - Lewis, Perk - Howard, Ray Ray - Carter. In this series, Pierce and Rondo have to lead the way offensively.

I’m also buying the Cavs and Cleveland. LBJ is not leaving Cleveland. The “Mistake by the Lake”’s economy is not going to collapse. LBJ still has to bring a Championship to OH-IO. He will have an early opt-out clause in his contract.

2010-05-03T08:39:00.007-05:00

ALMOST HIT IT

On Saturday, I came close to hitting the panic button for Fire Brand.

The 2010 Red Sox will have a difficult time getting into the playoffs after this below 500 start. They need either the Yankees or Rays to faultier in an area without a backup plan or win nearly every series going forward. Either scenario is unlikely and this may very well be the “bridge” year.

I'm still going to wait until after this home stand before calling for big changes (Papelbon, VMart, Beltre, etc.). On the sunny side, the Red Sox "big three" have pitched well in their last outings and Clay Buchholz has looked very good.

2010-04-30T13:36:00.008-05:00

FINEST NINE TWEETS FROM THE LAST WEEK

1) Red Sox signing of Cuban, Adalberto Ibarra, tells me they have less confidence than say publicly bout internal C prospects (cont)

2) Many think the Red Sox and media over hype all of their prospects and same goes for Yankees. Always b skeptical or don't believe the hype.

3) RT @jaypeakdeals:..opening Thursday-Sunday..ticket deal. $39 gets you a lift ticket..a full lunch at Tower Bar inside Tram Haus Lodge.

4) RT @Jared_Carrabis: Tek has been raking since..wearing his pants down. He should change his plate music to "Pants On the Ground." MVP season

5) @drjefflo @Sean_McAdam I was at some of those expos games-same product, sit anywhere for $5, easy parking, no lines. It wasn't all bad

6) @immortalkid Howard signing is a classic case of paying for past rather than future performance; cherry on top is he wasn't even fa.

7) Reason I didn't draft him injury risk RT @Buster_ESPN: Heard this: Brett Anderson will be out the next 4 to 6 weeks, with the flexor strain.

8) Awesome! RT @MLBNetwork: Solid 60 is..at 9pm ET with 60 commercial-free min of all the latest highlights, updates from tonight's games.

9) Ellsbury 07 track RT @AmalieBenjamin: Lars Anderson was promoted to Triple A, after hitting .355 with 5 homers,16 RBI in Double A.

2010-04-30T13:18:00.002-05:00

SURE HAS BEEN A GHOST LATELY

If you are missing me, I'm writing once a week on Saturdays for Fire Brand of the American League. I'll still be posting here and I'm active on twitter. And since I'm new to the ranks of the unemployed, it is likely I'll be writing/posting/tweeting more and more.

2010-04-19T18:11:00.005-05:00

THE PANIC BUTTON HAS BEEN LOCATED AND DUSTED OFF

But I'm not ready to push it until after May 13 or when the Olde Towne Team has completed playing 20 out of 26 games at Fenway. As bad as the Sox have looked, it is still early...right?...right?

2010-04-11T18:34:00.010-05:00

FINEST NINE TWEETS FROM THE LAST WEEK

1) @IanMBrowne Ortiz should have been all over that 3-1 fastball. I'm concerned. I heart David Ortiz.

2) If Andy Pettitte can throw his curve ball for strikes, then he is usually tough.

3) This is late but a very good article by @AmalieBenjamin on the Red Sox Tom Tippett

4) To my NYC followers, get there RT @alchemistbeer: Four of my beers will be on tap this Sunday at the Blind Tiger Ale House in NYC.

5) Good informative article on Burlington, VT finances and Jonathan Leopold by Kevin J. Kelly for @Seven_Days

6) Same for me and I would never leave my apt. RT @amandarykoff: I've decided not to get MLB Extra Innings. If I get it, I will never not watch baseball.

7) Wondering if CC Sabathia wears #52 because it matches his pant size?

8) Red Sox fans should hope that LeBron James goes anywhere other than to the N.J. Nets. It would be a huge revenue boost for Yes Network a.k.a. the MFY.

9) Does David Ortiz get tossed this yr more than Rasheed Wallace? He seems angry so far this spring.

2010-04-05T17:27:00.008-05:00

RANDOM RUMBLINGS ON OPENING NIGHT

* I felt dirty after watching Dr Dre and company big pimpin’ his headphones.

* On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the best, Pedro Martinez throwing out the first pitch was a 536.

* Keri Hilson was by far the best singer in the house last night and the cutest.

* To Joshua Sacco’s parents, your family’s 15 minutes are up. To the Red Sox Game Day Production Department, C’mon; not applicable.

* The good and bad of Curtis Granderson were on display last night. Good: home run power. Bad: poor jumps in center and useless against lefties.

* C.C. Sabathia has always been big but last night he looked fat with a beer belly.

* Could Heidi Whatney have quasi-man man hands?

* David Ortiz not being able to catch up to good fastballs when everyone knows the gas is coming is a horrible sign.

* Ryan Westmoreland sitting in Theo's box was the best part of Opening Night.

(boston.barstoolsports.com.com)

* Steven Tyler should be doing anti-drug commercials not signing.

* Score one for the pink hats: Neil Diamond horribly sang "Sweet Caroline”, at least the Sox were up in the eighth.

* Winning the first game is fine, but winning the last game of the year in October is what really counts.

2010-04-03T09:13:00.006-05:00

MY FANTASY BASEBALL AUCTION

My strategy was different than usual this year due to the high number of quality of multiple positions eligible players – Zobrist, Figgins, Lopez, Beckham – at scarce places around the diamond. The notion is value flexibility more than in years past for trades, injuries/free agent pickups and day-to-day match ups. The other offensive thought was to acquire the top speed over power players. Even though stolen bags are more plentiful than in years past, it concentrated in the top 10 unlike power. The A.L. has many 1B/OF/DH types that are projected to hit 20-30 bombs that could go undrafted. As for pitching, keeping Grienke and Feliz pushed me into a Santana type strategy or one stud + LIMA.

The other point of emphasis was to supplement my quantitative analysis with more qualitative information or scouting reports. If more advanced baseball metrics was becoming more prevalent, then it would be likely that many of my competitors would be incorporating them into their strategies. Hence, I needed to have more and/or better information to find undervalued players.

League Parameters: $100 budget, eight team, 5x5 with OBP and HRA

Keepers:
Grienke - 19
Feliz – 2
Napoli – 5

Auctioned:
Zobrist – 11
Shields – 11
Beckham – 9
Hunter – 9
ARamirez – 6
RSoriano – 5
JLopez – 5
Pierre – 3
Niemann – 3
RDavis – 2
CPerez - 2

My hitting strategy went as planned. On the pitching side, I ventured and got Shields. He was not cheap, but more quality innings would allow me to take more chances later. Unfortunately, I didn’t have that opportunity. Yahoo crapped out on me at the end of the auction killed my shot at Fausto Carmona and Francisco Liriano - two targets due to my qualitative analysis – and gave me Niemann and RDavis. Overall the auction went well except at the end, as yahoo $hit the bed and auto drafted unwanted players.

Post-script: I was able to trade JLopez and Niemann for Rios and Carmona. This is a risky trade as both Rios and Carmona are trying to comeback from poor 2009 seasons. But in a perfect world, Carmona would be a keeper at $4 pairing with Feliz to be my two front line starters costing only $7 compared to this season’s $30. As for Rios, he completes my White Sox runners. According to Buster Olney, Ozzie Guillen is going to run a lot this year so many Other Sox projections are probably light on stolen bases and undervalue Rios, Pierre, Beckham, and ARamirez. Konerko is not a runner; Quentin has a foot problem and the remaining Other Sox didn’t make it on my board. I’m officially happy with my team.

2010-03-21T17:17:00.005-05:00

MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Feature Panel

What Geeks Don't Get: The Limits of Moneyball
The panel features Mark Cuban, Jonathan Kraft, Daryl Morey, Bill Polian, and Bill Simmons with Michael Lewis as the Moderator. Enjoy, folks and thanks, ESPN.

2010-03-18T17:12:00.013-05:00

NOTES FROM THE MIT SLOAN SPORTS ANALYTICS CONFERENCE

It has been nearly two weeks since the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference so this blog post is late. I did tweet from the conference and you can read a particularly good recap over at baseball musings.

The Baseball Analytics panel consisted of John Abadoned of the Cardinals, John Dewan of plus/minus defensive metric fame, Dan Duquette, Shiraz Reham from Arizona, and Tom Tippett of the Red Sox. Abandoned seemed to be the most forth coming among the trio representing teams. He broke news that MLB will have a league wide injury/health electronic medical record system.

In terms of player evaluation, Abandoned still thinks that the margin for error when projecting player performance is still large and can be refined. But it seemed like he was also more concerned than Tippett or Reham about the future enhanced pitch fx system that can identify a fielder’s positioning. Abandoned thought it would make it too easy for other teams to measure defense; hence the Cards would have less of an advantage.

Abandoned wants to measure or do a better job at evaluating “makeup” (work ethic, desire, probability of giving into temptation, etc.) The question was not asked but I would think potential acquisitions, certainly amateurs, would be given personality tests or psychology evaluations before being drafted or signed. The Red Sox may have a leg up on the Cards in this area as they have a Sports Psychologist in Bob Tewksbury.

Tippett pretty much stuck with the Yawkey Way talking points on this winter. The Red Sox did not have a change in philosophy that was now emphasizing defense. Based on their player evaluations, including defensive metrics, the market was undervaluing players whose best skills were with the glove. Plus, the Olde Towne Team was able to sign the position player free agents to relatively short contracts (a.k.a. low financial and production risk) making the transactions easy decisions. John Dewan commented that the Red Sox 2010 run differential will be 60-80 runs better than last season.

Other Baseball Analytics Notes:

* Dewan states defensive metrics can tell you about 60% of a players glove ability.

* Teams wrestle with changing a pitcher's mechanics to give them a better shot at staying healthy when it could make them less effective. It was not mentioned but all I could think was Max Scherzer getting dealt to the Tigers from the D-Backs.

* Dan Duquette’s bio says “In addition to being recognized as the primary architect of the 2004 World Championship team…”

* Duquette wants to know how to consistently develop “20 game winners.”

* Tippett defended the Red Sox so called “babying of pitchers” stating that they project playing in October where starters could be asked to make four to six intense playoff starts, which would give them a mid-30’s GS total.

Other Observations and Notes:

* Bill Polian says the “Patriots are the team of the decade.”

* Polian knew the Pats were going on 4-and-2. It was “100% the right call.”

* Mark Cuban pays for clutch and an example is Jason Kidd; Daryl Morey of the Rockets does not.

* Cuban states that NBA teams try to hide and protect their morons on the floor. Without a doubt, it was the funniest line of the conference.

* The NBA has a long way to go to catch up with MLB metrics as data collection is more difficult.

2010-03-02T19:45:00.005-05:00

2010 A.L. EAST FORECAST

Baseball Prospectus is forecasting the MFY at 90 wins, the Sox at 95 and TB with 93 wins. BP forecasts runs scored and against based primarily on their PECOTA player projections, then plugs that into Bill James Pythagorean formula to calculate winning percentage. James’ Pythagorean equation has a 9% margin for error mostly due blow out, one-run and other close games. Besides the aforementioned run distribution, player forecasts, head-to-head record and the potential for additions to the organization can impact the projections. Run distribution and head-to-head record is too difficult, if even possible, to plan for and significantly impact. The baseball gods have more say on these two factors than any player, manager or general manager, which leaves three factors to analyze.

Player Projections

PECOTA does a good job at projecting player production, but injuries, odd career and young players tend to give the system issues. With that in mind, the Rays forecast has the most risk. It is projecting that Ben Zobrist is for real after a 2009 breakout season with only a significant dip in BA. More importantly, PECOTA has the young trio of T-Bay Rays pitchers (David Price, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis) each throwing around 150 innings with an ERA slightly above 4.00 and 2-to-1 K:BB ratios. One or even two out of three is reasonable but hitting on 100% is highly unlikely.

The MFY’s PECOTA player projections appear to be dead on with one exception – Javy Vazquez. It is forecasting that Vazquez’s K:BB to improve over his three years with the White Sox. It is likely considering his great season in Atlanta while also putting less impact on it since he is in his mid-30s. But PECOTA may not adjust a change to the A.L. East from the N.L.; only League-to-League. Also, forecasting the impact of MFY Stadium is volatile given only one year of data.

Beyond the big two, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the Sox rotation has question marks to varying degrees. PECOTA appears to be optimist on three. John Lackey has made 27 and 24 starts in his last two seasons. So in his thirties, it is unlikely that he takes the ball 30 times and pitches 190 innings. Daisuke Matsuzaka is a “national treasure” and “like box of chocolates…you never know what your gonna get.” Similar to the T-Bay Rays trio of young pitchers, Clay Buchholz’s forecast is on the optimist side – ERA under 4.00 and slightly better than a 2-to-1 K:BB ratio. As with any system, PECOTA is consistent.

Trade Targets

As side from the T-Bay Rays, who are unlikely to deal with the Sox or MFY and be out of October baseball, Adam Dunn and Adrian Gonzalez are the probable impact bats on the market come July. On paper, neither slugger is a fit for the Olde Towne Team or the MFY. It is doubtful that the Rays will part with the assets necessary to acquire either big bat.

If healthy, Ben Sheets or Gil Meche would upgrade any rotation. Meche would be owed roughly $18M through 2011 at the time of a deal, so the Rays are out. He also has a limited no-trade clause. Both the Sox and MFY might find Meche more attractive as he would fill a spot in 2011 that could be vacated by Josh Beckett with Boston and Andy Pettitte or/and Javy Vazquez in NYC. Sheets at $10+M in 2010 is probably to rich for the Rays blood, but not for the Sox, MFY or other contenders. Although the prospect price will probably be too high for the A.L. bEasts.

A.L. EAST Prediction (Last year, I did pretty well. I swung and missed only twice on B.J. Upton and John Smoltz. Everything else was solid, even the trade speculation.)

SOX - 93 wins – Starters 3-6 are not as productive as PECOTA projection
MFY - 90 wins (Wild Card)
TBR - 84 wins – Crawford, Pena, Soriano, etc. are traded at the deadline

2010-02-26T08:08:00.001-05:00

SORRY FOR NOT POSTING

But nothing has been blog worth a.k.a. an interesting Red Sox topic that I have a different angle on. I find repetition annoying and not valuable. If you do miss El Guapo’s Ghost, follow me twitter where most of my random rumblings are now being published. Also, read my take on the 2010 Red Sox during a NESN blogger roundtable.

***

I’ve been asked to post about a raffle to support Journey Forward. Journey Forward is a non-profit gym that helps people with spinal cord injuries recover. The raffle includes the following prizes:

Winner and a guest will enjoy 2 tickets (1 each) to the Boston Red Sox March 27, 2010 Spring Training game against the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Field in Sarasota Florida and 2 tickets (1 each) to the March 28, 2010 game against the Minnesota Twins at Palms Park Field in Fort Myers, Florida.

Winner and a guest will enjoy dinner with Jason Varitek in Florida

Winner will receive $1,500 for travel and other expenses

Winner and guest will each receive an autographed Jason Varitek 8 X 10 Photo

The tickets for the raffle are only $2 each (min 5) and the proceeds benefit a great cause. For more information or to purchase tickets visit Varitek Spring Training Raffle

2010-02-14T21:11:00.002-05:00

THE WORSE SUNDAY OF THE SPORTS YEAR GOT ME POSTING ABOUT RED SOX RUN PREVENTION

No disrespect to the NBA and Mark Cuban but the All-Star Game is a performance rather than competition. As for the Winter Olympics, men’s hockey can be watch worthy but that’s about it. My bet is that over 75% of the NFL viewing audience does not watch more than thirty minutes of the Winter Olympics. Just another example of the great investments made by NBC. (BTW, I can’t believe two of NBC’s Thursday sit-coms revolved around Valentine’s Day instead of the Winter Olympics the day before the Opening Ceremonies?) So I’ve got time to post…on the Red Sox winter emphasis on defense.

The Sox needed to improve their glove work as they were 19th in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last year. By all accounts, the Olde Towne Team did just that with the additions of Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro and Adrian Beltre. But with the Red Sox rotation being projected to be even more of a strikeout staff than last year, the trio may not get a large number of opportunities to flash their leather. If the Sox flyball tendencies continue, then the impact of Scutaro and Beltre will be limited relative to most other staffs. And we may only witness the full range gain in outfield on the road, as left at Fenway is by the smallest in the Majors. Hence, the better Red Sox rotation may have more to do with enhanced run prevention in 2010 than the threesome of defensive upgrades.

2010-02-06T14:15:00.011-05:00

CELTICS COULD HAVE THEIR CAKE AND EAT IT TOO

Due to the amount of time lost to key players, it is difficult to be confident in any assessment of the 2009-2010 Boston Celtics as the trading deadline nears. Is the team healthy enough to have a legitimate chance at raising another banner this June? If so, do they need a last piece to push them over the top and what type of player would that be? Danny Ainge and his staff are in a tough situation, but they could have their cake and eat it too.

With reportedly only a hand full of teams in the black, according to The B.S. Report: 1/29 (My guess is that the Celtics are one of the five due to a large TV market and high attendance; plus the Lakers, Knicks, Mavs, Bulls for the same two reasons.), and others trying to shed salary for summer of LeBron and company, many clubs desire The Green’s $31M in expiring contracts. The Celtics can leverage these two advantages if they are willing to take on salary beyond this season.

By trading Ray Allen and his $19.8M salary, the Celtics could acquire a shooting guard signed for multiple years plus another piece to still compete this year. They should not have too much competition as the Lakers and Mavs do not have much coming off their books after this season. As far as the Bulls and Knicks, the duo are not looking to take on 2010-11 money as they want to be big players this summer.

Monta Ellis, who has been rumored, fits the SG profile but no one else on the Warriors roster and ledger works. The same can be said, but to a lesser degree, about Jason Richardson and the Suns. Kirk Hinrich's contract is terrible relative to his production and is not much of an upgrade over a healthy Marquis Daniels.

The best fit would be bringing Caron Butler and Mike Miller to Boston for Ray Allen. It could be tough defensively against quick twos at times, but offensively things could be just fine. And after the 2010-11 season, the Celtics will have the same type of flexibility with $35M in expiring contracts.

2010-01-14T22:31:00.004-05:00

NO NEED TO PANIC - THE RED SOX OFFENSE SHOULD BE JUST FINE

With black holes at catcher, DH and shortstop for two-thirds of last year, the Sox still managed to be third in the American League in runs scored hitting a 270/352/454 line. The huge year-over-year upgrade from having Victor Martinez for a full season and Marco Scutaro replacing a terrible threesome at short essentially makes up for Jason Bay going to the dysfunctional and unhealthy Mets.

If you subtract the ineptitude at SS, C as well as Bay, Lowell and Victor as a Red Sox player from the team totals and add in the 2009 stats from Victor, 50% of Tek plus the three new additions, then the team line would be 272/354/444. The local nine’s power would drop along with runs scored, but the Sox will still average about five runs per game. We are not going to be watching many 1-0 and 2-1 games.

2010-01-11T19:22:00.006-05:00

FOURSOME

* You live by the Brady, you die by the Brady. And in nearly all cases, we have lived very well.

* If you found DJ Bean’s piece on Latin American baseball interesting, then you should rent Sugar. It is a nice story on how difficult a transition it is for Latin players trying to make it to the Show.

* Adrian Beltre is great with the glove, but he may not get as many opportunities to flash the leather as the Red Sox were 2nd to last in ground balls induced in 2009. With many of the same pitchers, this trend is unlikely to change much.

* One tidbit from Johnny Damon on his experience on moving from center to left as part of Nick Cafardo’s insightful summary of opinions on Jacoby Ellsbury being slated to play in front of the Monster: “Of course, when I got to arbitration after the season, the first thing they brought up at the hearing was that I’d moved to left and wasn’t worth as much.” It is note worthy that Damon and Ellsbury share the infamous, although may not be warranted, agent Scott Boras.

2010-01-07T20:01:00.008-05:00

POST NEW YEAR’S RANDOM RUMBLINGS

* The Bosstones at The Middle East can't be beat! I still love my old 'hood.

* If your name is one of the about 550,000 in the intelligence database, you should not be able to get on a plane coming to the U.S.A. I see no reason to have a "no fly" subset. No one has a right to fly. I hoped and thought to be, in part, voting for a more competent Executive Branch.

* Watch The League on hulu.com. It is the best "free" comedy.

* For everyone trying to shed a few LBs, given it's the start of a new year, and I hope it is many, the formula is simple: calories burned > calories consumed = weight loss.

* Unless we had a year 0, which I don't believe we have record of, then the decade runs from 2001-2010 and NOT 2000-2009.

* The media needs to calm down with vilification of Scott Boras. If the reports are correct, Adrian Beltre "left money on the table" to sign with the Red Sox. This may not happen often with Boras' clients, but could it be that the players are driving the charge for every last penny and not the agent? Could it be that Boras, his clients and to a lesser extent the MLB owners want the media and fans to blame the agent instead of the product/player for being greedy?

2010-01-04T22:15:00.005-05:00

$10 MILLION FOR A FEW SLICES OF BACON ON MY THIRD BASE BURGER

Other than 2007, Lowell has been very consistent with the bat during his tenure with the Sox. He has averaged a half of base per plate appearance [Total Bases + BB] / Plate Appearance. Given his age and health issues, it is realistic to forecast a decrease in production next year. Excluding Beltre’s last campaign in Seattle, he has nearly matched Lowell’s half of base per PA. If we agree with their defensive reps and the recent offensive outliers, Beltre would seem to project as the more productive third baseman. But the upgrade is not worth $10 million.

Even though I have never been a huge supporter of Mike Lowell, it does not make sense to pay $10 million for only a defensive upgrade at the hot corner. Thankfully, it is not a long-term deal according to the early reports. The Red Sox can easily overcome / write-off one year mistakes.

2009-12-22T05:39:00.001-05:00

'TIS THE SEASON

In honor of Festivus, my airing of grievances for the Red Sox.

* Was the total misdirection of the media and the fans with the “bridge” comments really necessary? It is still a game. This isn’t the 1960s and the MFY do not have missiles aimed at Block Island. If you do not want to make your winter plans known, then don’t give any interviews.

* Even though the heavy lifting is probably completed, Janet Marie Smith should still be leading Fenway’s renovations.

* New England should be able to watch the Red Sox on MLB.tv. We should not be married to cable or satellite.

* Virtual Waiting Room – enough said.

With that being said, John Henry’s tenure as the leader of the Red Sox has been incredible. My list of grievances would have been much much longer back when Seinfeld first introduced us to Festivus.

2009-12-17T18:16:00.006-05:00

DOUBLE PLAY FREE AGENT SIGNING ANALYSIS

JOHN LACKEY

The Red Sox paid the market rate or $82.5 million over five years with a limited no-trade (set by the MFY and A.J. Burnett) for John Lackey. He is a pitcher whose peripheral statistics have been trending downward since his age 28 season in 2007. We will be lucky to see one or two years with a K/BB ratio higher than three and it will probably occur in 2010 or 2011. But it was a solid signing as the upcoming free agent starting pitching market is thin. Josh Beckett, who profiles a lot like Lackey, and Cliff Lee, who wants C.C. Sabathia money and is likely to be in pinstripes this time next year, are the only two top of the rotation pitchers coming to market next winter.

After the 2010 season, Lackey gives the Sox insurance against Beckett leaving, Buchholz slowly developing and Matszuka continuing to be a bust. And this year, he makes the Sox rotation tops in baseball!

MIKE CAMERON

Cameron is unlikely to match Jason Bay’s power or contact numbers, although he is never play his home games in such a hitter friendly Park, but his OBP should be close and his defense is superior. If Ellsbury or Cameron plays in left, it will be an upgrade in the 81 games away from Fenway. In front of the Monster, the increased defensive range is probably not significant. The Sox seem to be paying for a skill that will only be used to its full potential 50% of the time. Since the contract is for two seasons, it could be more for flexibility and redundancy in 2010 and roster optimization in 2011, when David Ortiz comes off the books.

2009-12-14T17:41:00.000-05:00

I wrote the post below over the weekend and today we have John Lackey signing with the Red Sox, Roy Halladay going to Philly, plus Cliff Lee to pair with King Felix in Seattle. It makes my take on Granderson and the right-handed backup outfield market futile.

WHERE ARE ALL THE CADDIES?

Curtis Granderson is an average player, who will play better in MFY Stadium as a pull, fly-ball hitter. If he is replacing, Melky Cabrera in centerfield, then it is a significant upgrade. If he takes time from Johnny Damon, then the MFY got better in the bases and in the field. Regardless, it really only cost them only Austin Jackson or an asset to be traded in the future. The MFY pounced on the distress in Detroit for a nice pickup.

But MFY fans should not get too fired up as many in my office did the morning after the announcement. Granderson can be pitched to and somewhat easily. He may hit a 30+ plus bombs but off of middle relievers and #4 starters with his team already up big. The centerfielder can’t hit southpaws a la Trot Nixon. In close and late games, the opposing team’s LOOGY will be trotting in from the pen to strikeout Granderson in a big spot. The MFY will need to have a RHB to pinch hit for him in the aforementioned scenarios. The RH/OF market may be heating up as both superpowers’ need the Roccos, Gabes, Noonans and Reed Johnsons of the world.

2009-12-09T18:17:00.026-05:00

SCUTARO AT SHORTSTOP

Now that Chone Figgins’ contract has been finalized with the Mariners, I can post about the Red Sox signing of Marco Scutaro. Figgins, going into his age 32 season, is going to receive $9 million a year for the next four seasons plus an option to play good defense at third or second, get on base and swipe some bags. Currently, the M’s will surrender their first-round draft pick (18th overall) due to the signing as well.

It is about where I thought the market would be for Figgins based on Rafael Furcal’s $30 million over three years last winter. Hence, my feeling was that Scutaro’s per year market would be in the $7.5-8 million range and after his age 34 season, getting a two year deal. But after reading that the statistically declining 34 year-old Placido Polanco got a three year deal for $18 million, my thought was that it would take $20 million or more to sure up shortstop and could end up like the Julio Lugo and Edgar Renteria disasters.

As we know, Scutaro left guaranteed money on the table from the A’s to play in Boston at a below market yearly rate. Now, this lets Lowrie play mostly in AAA to be ready in 2011 to replace Mike Lowell at the hot corner. But back to Scutaro, he should be a two-to-three win upgrade over last season if he can post a respectable OBP as he has done lately nearly his entire career. We should not have to endure another season of suck-a-tude at short.

2009-12-03T18:59:00.006-05:00

HITTING TO ALL FIELDS: Lowell, Cabrera Squared, Scutaro, Pedroia and a Boston media conspiracy theory

***

A blast from my past:

“As regular readers know, I wanted Miguel Cabrera. I also didn’t want the Sox to give out long-term deals because it would limit their future opportunity to acquire Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira or Miguel Cabrera. Now that Santana and Cabrera will likely be off the market next winter and the Sox should get the 2006 Lowell in 2008 and 2009, Lowell’s three year contract is not so bad.”

But the signing likely prevented the Red Sox from making a more competitive offer to Teixeira.

***

As for Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers would need to agree to pay most of the back end of his contract before trade discussions should commence. He is starting to look a lot like his eighth most comparable player, Andruw Jones.

***

Mark Scutaro and a multi-year contract is not the answer at short. Simply: the third time is NOT the charm. Please learn from your mistakes.

***

With Bobby Crosby and Adam Everett being floated in the media as possibilities at shortstop (both bring the same amount of suckiness as last year), can someone please inform me as to what “off-the-field issues” Orlando Cabrera still has or had in 2004 that prevents him from being an option?

Did Dr. Charles Steinberg, the Dentist and former Consigliere to Larry Lucchino, have to clean up a dead hooker for Orlando? Seriously, Cabrera must have personally pissed off a Red Sox owner to be blackballed because he is their best option. The former Olde Towne Team shortstop will not cost a draft pick, probably will sign a similar one-year $4M deal like last year, and is relatively solid with the stick and in the field. Cabrera is the better Jed Lowrie insurance policy.

***

The Dustin Pedrioa moving to the other side of second base is probably Plan Q. It is also interesting to note that Peter Gammons published the information on the same day as John Henry’s “interview” hit the “series of tubes.” Was SS Plan Q leaked the same day to temper the discussion of Henry’s brain fart and poor us sounding “interview”?

2009-11-24T20:12:00.002-05:00

THANKSGIVING!

Dear Friends, Followers, Blog Readers,

Yeah, you are all getting the same note - settle down, you are all snowflakes. Have a great Thanksgiving! For various reasons this is the most American of holidays and my favorite. In case some of you forgot, I love turkey day since it is the one day that eating and drinking too much, then falling asleep watching football is socially acceptable or a normal Sunday for this guy. Anyway, I do have much to be thankful for but nobody wants to hear how great someone else $hit is… So eat drink & be merry.

2009-11-16T13:30:00.002-05:00

HOW ROY HALLADAY COMES TO BOSTON?

As mentioned in the previous post, the Marlins are unlikely to trade Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson with a new park on the way. Currently, this leaves only Roy Halladay as an impact trade target for the Red Sox. If the old school workhorse is going to leverage his no-trade right into a contract extension at market rate like Johan Santana, then only a hand full of clubs can be considered to be in the running for his services.

The Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs have ownership issues so it is unlikely they make a financial splash this winter. The Mets will be players but Halladay may not view them as a contender. The Giants are likely to make an offense upgrade their first priority. This leaves the Red Sox, LAA of A, the MFY and the Phillies.

The following is a scenario that Halladay lands in Boston:

* The LAA of A gives up on resigning John Lackey. Hence, they would appear to be players for Halladay but they do not have as much depth on the farm. If Chone Figgins leaves the O.C., then Brandon Wood could slide in at the hot corner eliminating a possible piece that would bring Halladay west.

* The MFY sign Lackey, re-up Andy Pettitte and ink a leftfielder. The MFY do not make a trade to resolve their off season issues thereby holding on their prospects. They continue with their recent winter way of doing business in the Bronx - make more and spend more money to hold onto their top minor leaguers.

* The Phillies sign Cliff Lee to a Sabathia/Santana type contract. Now, “It’s like a baby New York” team does not need to go to the mattresses for Halladay or give up talent on the farm so soon again. And even without the workhorse from the north, the Phillies are still the overwhelming favorites for another pennant.

* The Sox do not ink Josh Beckett to an extension, which would moderately increase their desire for Halladay. The former Cy Young award winner would pair with Jon Lester beyond 2010 instead of Beckett. And in the upcoming season, Halladay would improve the club’s run prevention without taking away anything from a lineup that can be expected to be one of the best again next year.

The Jays move from their desire for "…one above-average impact guy than eight ordinary guys” since they only have one real dance partner remaining. It is a similar circumstance to the Santana trade from the Twins, as the Jays will accept a package that is not much greater than two 2011 top draft picks, although it appears Bill Smith took the “eight ordinary guys.” Hence, Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard will not be heading north.

The Red Sox have the depth in the farm to trade a pair or even three prospects. Kevin Goldstein commented after an article grading the Olde Towne Team’s prospects that…“They're 1-11 might not be crazy elite, but their 21-30 would rank very high, so there are a lot of options.”

The Olde Towne Team also has a financial motivation for the trade. NESN’s revenue likely declined last season due to both a ratings and number of subscribing households decline. Now, the Red Sox can partially justify the Halladay transactions with the projected incremental revenue from NESN. Assuming the “fans” who jumped off the bandwagon after the disappointing loss to the Rays leap back on with the dreams of a Halladay, Lester, Beckettt October rotation.

To sum up, if the three other probably suitors for the extension demanding Halladay attend to other issues first, the Red Sox could find the price palatable for the former Cy Young award winner. Ironically, the MFY could drive Halladay to Boston by acting quickly on Lackey and Figgins. Only time will tell if New England has another definition for the “Big Three.”

2009-11-08T18:42:00.002-05:00

I CAN’T BELIEVE…I’VE GOT MORE ON HERMIDA

Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus made two very good points on the Hermida trade. The first is that the newly acquired outfielder has options remaining. Hence, Hermida can be the Sox expensive fifth outfielder in Pawtucket. This trade will not have much, if any impact on finding replacements for Jason Bay and Rocco Baldelli (a.k.a. a right-handed hitting platoon partner for J.D. Drew and a backup for Jacoby Ellsbury).

But it probably reduces the chance of the Sox acquiring Josh Johnson - my former trade target to be named later - as it frees up cash to sign him to a long-term deal. The top of the rotation starter and Hanley Ramirez can be on board when the Marlins open their new Park.

2009-11-06T12:18:00.005-05:00

YOUR ARCH RIVAL WINS THE WORLD SERIES AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY HERMIDA

Vermont native, Buster Olney was dead on during an interview on WEEI. He predicted the Sox would get Jeremy Hermida for a song due to the financial issues facing many clubs. And it was a steal, but for a player that does not fit the current makeup of this team unless the Sox are not going to sign Jason Bay. Hermida like Casey Kotchman should be pricey insurance policies, as they are not starters on a contending team, or moved for more complementary pieces for the Olde Towne Team. Hermida is a better fit on the MFY as they have a possible opening in leftfield. Thankfully, the Marlins did not want to wait, which seems ridiculous, and Brian Cashman has been preoccupied according to Olney…

“You know, it’s interesting, I talked to Brian Cashman two days ago, and he was sort of like, “Hey, what do you hear out there,” and I talked about the non-tender thing. And he said, “Boy, I kind of wish I had more time to get into it, but I don’t.” And I guarantee that today after he picks up his kids from school, he’ll be making phone calls and jumping into that market.”

2009-11-04T12:26:00.003-05:00

ANALYZING THE RED SOX RUMORS

We discussed why Adrian Gonzalez is unlikely coming to Boston. Next up is Felix Hernandez. Roy Halladay will be added as well as the previously mentioned Hanley Ramirez and a trade target to be named later.

THEY DON’T GROW ON TREES EVEN WITH ALL THE RAIN IN SEATTLE

If your team is serious about winning a championship, then trading a young true #1 starter should be the last resort. These players are the most important component in going far in October. Plus, they are expensive in the free agent market (see: C.C. Sabathia’s $161M contract).

Only when an organization can not field a championship caliber team when they control their young true #1 starter should he be dealt. This should not be the case for the Mariners and Felix Hernandez, as the M’s have the financial means to sign the very young ace to be their cornerstone into the next decade. At only 24 years of age, Hernandez signing a four or five year deal would allow him for another large contract before his thirtieth birthday. It would appear to be a win-win for the M’s-Hernandez so it stands a high probability to getting accomplished.

Even if King Felix is being shopped, the Sox have fewer bullets after the Victor Martinez trade to exchange for Hernandez. Also, as we mentioned in an earlier post, Theo Epstein is…

"…trying to grow the organization to the point where we don't have to ever get a free agent. We're probably closer to that point now then we were two or three offseasons ago. It's a lesson learned for sure."

It would appear that the Red Sox do not want to move more prospects as it would likely necessitate further risky and expensive free agent acquisitions in the near future. But Yawkey Way has been known to make exceptions.

2009-10-29T11:23:00.005-05:00

I HEART PEDRO...

...and hate the MF-Yankees; bring it tonight - for it maybe be the last time.

Thursday, December 30, 2004
A LETTER TO THE GREATEST RED SOX PITCHER EVER

Dear Pedro,

We both came to Boston in the fall of 1997. We both got our first "real" jobs in the Hub. I just graduated from college and you graduated from the JV squad in Montreal. Your introduction to Beantown came with a little more media attention than my Enterprise Rent-a-Van pulling up outside of my first apartment at 31 Gardner Street. I think my Mom has a picture or two.

Your acquisition and my new address renewed my devotion to the Red Sox which had faded after entering college. Academics were my focus for four years with a few twists: beer, music, girls, more beer, video games, stupid human tricks and other activities that I am not at liberty to discuss. Seriously, it was kind of tough to follow the club in the spring with finals and then I spending each summer without NESN. The strike of 1994 and uninteresting Sox clubs prior to 1998 did not help either. But that all changed, the Red Sox acquired you, the best pitcher in the world about to enter his prime.

I still remember the press conference to introduce you to the media and Red Sox Nation, which at the time was still in its formative years. Your eyes burst with enthusiasm and disbelief with all of the attention. Snow had piled up in the stands as you walked around the field with DD and Johnny Boy. Hordes of media members were watching your every move and snapping picture after picture - a tad different than Montreal.

Your first season did not disappoint, as you pitched the Sox to a playoff appearance against the Indians. You got the lone win for the Sox in that series. But it played as your introduction to the broader baseball world. The casual fan now knew of Pedro Martinez.

In the 1999 season, I got a new job working out of One Beacon Street. My college buddies, Meaney and Mattie Boy, and I would have to ride through Kenmore to get back to our apartments. Now we had a few more bucks to spend than when we first moved to the city, so on nice evenings before we left the office, we would call each other and try to talk one another into going to the game. The conversations would usually go like “come on what else are you going to do" and "it's only ten bucks" (yes, $10 for bleachers). At some point, one of us would ask "Is Pedro pitching?" If the answer was “yes”, we were there. You were the trump card. We never wanted to miss a Pedro start. There was always a possibility of witnessing history.

In 1999-2000 when it was your turn to take the mound, there was a type of buzz that has never been duplicated before a Sox game. It was the sense that I, the fan in the stands, could be a part of history today. I recall many games, when you were pitching and once the Sox scored, fans would be like “okay, time to go home.” The game was essentially over. No need to waste time watching the rest of the contest because you would shut down the other club. Let's head to the bar for cheaper beer. When you were on the mound in 1999 and 2000, we felt like MFY fans - our team would always come out on top.

There were so many magical moments in 1999. I missed most of your All-Star Game domination. Chico and I won Phish tickets for the same night during an all day bar hoping drinking bonanza from West to East via the Green Line. Great day, but I am not much of exhibition games anyway. I did catch you whiffing Sammy Sosa while waiting in line for a beer or was that a bong hit.

I have a tough time picking between your 1-hit, 17 strikeout wizardry over the MFY in their house, and the wounded warrior non-fastball throwing six relief inning dominance of the 1,000 run scoring Indian lineup in the deciding fifth game of the ALDS as my favorite performance in 1999. Regardless, I recall both evenings as they were yesterday, well…not really, probably more like a few months ago so excuse some discrepancies (I spelled “discrepancies” without the assistance of spell check. Shut up. It’s a big accomplishment for me.)

I did not have cable back in the day, but the game was on WSBK-38. I was watching it alone on my 13-inch set with rabbit ears. I did not get the sense of the history until later into the game because it was a close contest with the MFY. I can still see the one mistake made to Chilly Davis that he hits to dead center. But I can also see the classic Pedro hip turn-flip follow through with arms raised toward the sky after striking out number 17 for the final out with Seanie Mick saying something like “Pedro Martinez strikes out 17 New York Yankees! A historical performance!” Great stuff, but you became a legend that night in Cleveland.

I had tickets to Game 4 at Fenway when Johnny V hit two dingers in a something like 22-6 ass kicking of the Indians that sent the series to a deciding fifth Monday night game at the Jake. Game 4 was so long, I didn’t make it back to my apartment until about 1 a.m. and I needed to rise about six to catch a flight to Baltimore. It sucked.

After working in the day, we - I and two non-Sox fan co-workers - went out for dinner. I was exhausted. We tried the ESPNZONE in the Inner Harbor, but they were not showing the game. I was beside myself and the guy at ESPN was like “It’s Monday Night Football and that takes precedent over everything else.” Even though the guy had that D-1 college football middle linebacker look, for a few seconds I contemplated pulling a Zell Miller on his ass. Freaking Disney/ESPN/ABC conglomerate made me watch the game in an empty Pizzeria Uno on a small screen.

Anyway, it was great the ups and downs of the first few innings (I got to personally thank Troy O’Leary for his two homers during warm-ups when he was playing for the Expos). But nothing was better than the silence at the Jake as the bullpen door opened and Super Petey exited onto the field. It was over. Everyone knew it. You threw inning after inning of no hit ball, as I got more and more intoxicated. The free beers didn’t help either. The server hooked me up. I assumed she was a Sox fan. Anyway, after the final out, I raised my arms in triumph and I rode back to the hotel drunk and happy.

After your historically season of 1999 where you were robbed of the MVP award, SI put you on the cover of their baseball preview issue for 2000. SI predicted you would pitch the Sox to a championship. A few years early right.;) A buddy and former co-worker of mine, Kimball, helped me reconfigured the cover to incorporate a picture of the Babe, Buckner and with the caption "SI JINX, BUCKNER BLUNDER, CURSE OF THE BAMBINO NOT Y2K COMPLIANT." The Curse was not Y2K compliant. It just seemed that way for a few extra seasons.

This is how I want to remember Pedro Martinez. The diva act, the respect talk, the “my daddy” and the like do not mean anything to me. What I am going to remember most is having the privilege of experiencing that Pedro buzz high before a start at Fenway. It was one of kind like your dominance on the mound from 1999-2000.

Pedro, you reinvigorated my passion for the Red Sox, the game of baseball and you delivered on the implied promise at the time of your acquisition - a World Series Championship - thank you.

2009-10-23T11:13:00.012-05:00

ANALYZING THE RED SOX RUMORS

Adrian Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez and Hanley Ramirez have been rumored to be trade targets of the Red Sox. The trio could be on the wish list, but none are likely to be playing for the Olde Towne Team in 2010. In this post and next two, it will be explained why each is probably not coming to Boston and who is a more realistic centerpiece of a blockbuster deal.

SAN DIEGO - GREAT WEATHER, ZOO, FIRST BASEMAN AND NONE ARE COMING TO BOSTON

Adrian Gonzalez is probably the only reason for Padres fans to head to Petco Park. It is tough to imagine new Owner, Jeff Moorad, alienating his customer/fan base. Some wounds never heal and Pads fans could easily switch allegiance to the Southern Cal's A.L. team. An hour-and-half drive north to watch good baseball isn't all that tough. Neither is just hang out at the beach, playing outside or hitting the inexpensive museums and world famous zoo (yes, I love San Diego). Gonzalez is the Padres and Moorad's only draw. He won’t be dealt as it might cost more to bring back the fans lost down the road.

If Moorad does put Gonzalez on the block, the Red Sox would likely not meet his price. It should take more than the bounty that sent Mark Teixeira to Atlanta, since the acquiring team will have an extra four months of Gonzalez and pay him $11.25M less than Teixeira's 2007-2008 seasons. In 2007, the Braves sent Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia - a conservative estimate assuming Beau Jones and Neftali Feliz would have been exchanged for Ron Mahay - to Texas for the sweet swinging switch hitter.

Before the 2007 season, Kevin Goldstein rated Salty, Harrison as very good prospects and Andrus a good prospect (Feliz was also rated a good prospect). The Red Sox current equivalent would be Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick or Ryan Westmoreland. A trade for Gonzalez would likely decimate the Red Sox farm system making them more reliant on the free agent market in the coming years, which is a route they are trying to avoid.

Theo Epstein said so much when discussing the trade of Julio Lugo.

"We're trying to grow the organization to the point where we don't have to ever get a free agent. We're probably closer to that point now then we were two or three offseasons ago. It's a lesson learned for sure."

2009-10-20T11:51:00.001-05:00

NOW THIS IS CHEATING!

2009-10-12T19:20:00.004-05:00

POST MORTEM

The primary reason the Red Sox are not playing baseball this week is their inability to hit on the road. Even after the acquisition of a Victor Martinez, they still were not putting up enough crooked numbers away from friendly Fenway. Both John Lackey and Jared Weaver pitched well but they should not dominate.

As far as yesterday, the lion’s share of blame goes to Jonathan Papelbon. He threw all fastballs! We know Papelbon is no Rhodes Scholar but c’mon. How about the slider or split? Breaking News: Jonathan Papelbon is no Marino Rivera. He can’t live off of one pitch.

2009-10-03T09:20:00.008-05:00

THANKS TO COMCAST

I would like to thank Comcast SportsNet New England's The Baseball Show for allowing more of New England to hear the crazy thoughts in my head. Also, I recently switched back to Comcast for cable and internet service from Burlington Telecom. My motivation was to watch Mad Men. Now that the installation is set, the cable product is far better - more HD channels although not MLB Network, much better OnDemand and 24-7 customer service. All things being even close to equal, I would rather support my local municipality but they are not. Let's not rush into expanding Burlington Telecom to the rest of Vermont.

2009-10-01T19:29:00.005-05:00

SATURDAY MORNING

My recorded voice is scheduled to appear on Comcast SportsNet New England's The Baseball Show this Saturday morning. Tune in to see how poorly I speak/read in quasi-public.

2009-09-28T18:05:00.012-05:00

THE OLDE TOWNE TREASURY SHOULD SHOW JASON BAY THE BENJAMINS

The majority of free agent long-term contracts (three plus years) are bad investments since they mostly cover a player's declining years (post-30) and are paid according to his prime (pre-30) production seasons. Of course, we have exceptions and the Red Sox-Jason Bay situation is one of those cases.

Production Forecast

Even though Bay is on the wrong side of thirty and can't make contact on breaking balls down-and-away, the weighted average of his top comparables demonstrated a decline in production (OPS+) of only 1-2% in their age 31 and 32 seasons and 9.75% in the following year. (If you want the data and calculation, let me know in the comments section.) The Sox would likely get a top quarter outfielder in 2010-11 and then league average in the third season. Limited data is available for the fourth season and beyond rendering the projection somewhat irrelevant. In the field, as Bay ages his speed and outfield range will probably decline like most. Fortunately, playing 81 games at Fenway and having the DH option minimizes this issue.

Red Sox other options

The organization does not have a near ready power hitting outfielder to take Bay's spot. Without any marketable and movable players, a non-blockbuster trade is unlikely. The Sox will probably need to find a power hitting outfielder on the free agent market.

Other than Matt Holliday, who comes with more questions and a similar if not higher price tag, no outfielder is likely to produce to Bay's level in 2010 and 2011. With 2010 appearing to be the last season of the David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell, and maybe Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Victor Martinez era, the Sox should be pushing all their chips into the center of the table.

After 2010, we could be in for a similar winter to 2004-5 when they decided against resigning many free agents (Pedro, Lowe, Orlando Cabrera), which assisted in yielding Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Clay Buchholz. It also means that the Olde Towne Treasury has plenty of resources after 2010 for Bay.

Prediction

Bay will sign for four years plus an option worth a guaranteed $75M. The Sox will be rolling the dice in year four but will be confident that the return in earlier years will offset any lost thereafter. Bay will give up an extra year from San Fran or the Mets to stay in Boston...well I hope so.

2009-09-21T16:15:00.009-05:00

THREESOME: PATS, REVISED A.L. PENNANT ODDS, BRUINS

* Where were the screen passes and draw plays to slow down the Jets pass rush? Unless Brady changed the play at the line, the Pats were out coached. Those words aren’t uttered too often. How much does that get factored into next week’s Free NFL picks?

* With the Twins back in the hunt - Baseball Prospectus has them at roughly a 17.6% shot at playing baseball beyond October 4th – my A.L. pennant odds are now: Twins 7.5to 1 and the Tigers 2.5:1. The Tigers line was discounted since they have a significant (17.6%) chance of not playing more than 162 in 2009. The Twins ranked 22nd - slightly behind LAA – but their probability of winning the pennant takes a nose dive with only 17.6% of getting to the second season. In summary, my odds for MLB baseball betting on the A.L. pennant are: MFY - 1:1, SOX - 1.5:1, DET - 2.5:1, LAA - 3.5:1, MIN - 7.5:1. Things will change when the schedule and pitching match ups are finalized.

* The questionable move was not trading Kessel. The Bruins appear to have gotten good value for the young sniper. The debatable transaction was giving Tim Thomas $20 million for his age 35-38 seasons. Kessel or Thomas was getting that salary cap space. The Bruins must have concluded that they are close to a Cup and Kessel’s production is less costly to replace than Thomas’. With Krejci, Ryder, Wheeler, and Kobasew on the right side of 30 plus Savard, the B’s have a good shot. It is just painful to trade another young goal scorer because since 1970 only five out of 39 championship teams did not have two or more players score 30 plus goals.

2009-09-19T11:14:00.007-05:00

BIG BOY LEAGUE (A.K.A. AMERICAN LEAGUE) PLAYOFF PREVIEW

Back in 2007, Nate Silver and Dayn Perry determined that a power pitching staff, a good closer and defensive clubs won more playoff games. They measured it, as BP still does by using normalized strikeout rate, WXRL and FRAA rankings.

As it stands through 9/17 games, the A.L. score and rankings are as follows for the four playoff teams:

MFY - 13 - 1

SOX - 26 - 4

DET - 28 - 5

LAA - 45 - 13

I believe that FRAA rankings does not consider park effects and I'm suspect of all individual defensive metrics, so I'm substituting James Click's (now TB Rays staffer) PADE or Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency to account for a good glove club. After making that change only LAA's ranking varied significantly.

MFY - 17 - 3

SOX - 24 - 4

DET - 28 - 6

LAA - 45 - 21

LAA is clearly now the weakest likely playoff team in the A.L. Thankfully, it looks like out Sox will take them on in the ALDS (knock on wood).

Playing off of Silver and Perry's research and analysis, my theory is: In the playoffs, a team is facing the best pitchers and by definition they make fewer mistakes - less walks and balls hit hard. A lineup is also likely dealing with the best team defenses, even more so as they get further into October, so stringing together hits will be tough. Hence, the best way to score is by the long-ball. The more hitters that can take advantage of the few mistakes thrown have the best chance of putting crooked numbers on the score board.

Any hitter with twelve or more home runs was counted as a player with the ability to deposit a ball in the bleachers. After crunching the numbers, we get the following rankings:

MFY - 1

SOX - 3

DET - 6

LAA - 20

The MFY rise to the top of the pack again as they can write in a lineup with power one through nine. The Sox and LAA each move up a spot and the Tigers stay put at six.

Without knowing which teams will play in the three starter series, I would put the A.L. pennant odds at:

MFY - 1:1

SOX - 1.5:1

DET - 2:1

LAA - 3.5:1

2009-09-09T11:21:00.009-05:00

CHERRY PICKING AND THEN SOME

The following is from Adam Kilgore on the Red Sox Extra Bases “blog.”

That’s six games against baseball’s best [Yankees and Angels], and 19 games against the American League’s true dregs. The average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .466; on average, that equates to the Sox playing a 75-win team based on 162 games) 25 times.

They [Rangers] get to play the Indians three times, including twice today, and the Athletics three times. But they have to play the Angels seven times and the Mariners six times. The average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .510; on average; the Rangers will play an 83-win team 26 times.

But with less than a month left and the Sox still vying with the Rangers, they have an easier path to the playoffs than their main competition.

***

“Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.”

First off, I'm not sure on Kilgore's math. Second, even if we agree that winning % is the best measure of a team's ability rather than run differential, then the comparison should be a weighted average based on games. Third, the Sox calc should NOT EXCLUDE the NYY and LAA. To be fair, Kilgore could have used a WAvg, included NYY and LAA and he or I just did the arithmetic incorrectly, but that does not seem to be the case.

Regardless, using a WAvg based on run differential and # of games to play as the data points to calculate winning %, excluding yesterday/Tuesday, put the Sox opponents at 495 v. 508 for the Rangers. The Sox do NOT have a significantly easier schedule than the Rangers going forward.

The most pressing issue is the offensive’s lack of production on the road. If the Rangers hang close through next week and Sox can’t score away from Fenway, then it is going to be a dog fight in the final week of the season.

2009-09-07T20:46:00.002-05:00

A TALE OF TWO TEAMS: THE RED SOX AT HOME V ROAD

Even after adding a very good hitter in Victor Martinez, the Red Sox still can not score on the road. Post-V-Mart, the Olde Towne Team is averaging 6.57 runs per game at friendly Fenway and winning eleven out of fourteen. On the road, they are 8-12. In those twenty games, the Red Sox have put up an average of 4.9 runs a contest, which isn’t so bad, but it is misleading. Exclude V-Mart’s first game at Camden Yard, when they went for a double Teddy Ballgame (18 runs) and the Sox have averaged only four runs a game. This has to improve or we may not see the postseason.

2009-08-26T19:23:00.007-05:00

WAIVER DEALS

It is tough to evaluate the Billy Wagner deal, as it is unknown who the players going to the Mets will be. As far as the other waiver deal, Alex Gonzalez gives the Sox a SS that they know will be solid in the field for a non-prospect. Assuming Gonzalez 2010 option will not be picked up; the Olde Towne Team is on the hook for approximately $.927M for a month and half, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. To compare, they will pay AGone seventy grand less than Adam Everett who will do the same job for Tigers but over the entire season. We are fortunate to root for a team that can overpay to fill holes - Lowrie's weird injury - in the heat of the playoff race.

***

Rest In Peace Senator Edward M. Kennedy

2009-08-18T21:20:00.005-05:00

IT AIN'T ALL BAD...YET

The Rangers are a good baseball team. In Texass, the Sox should come away with one win out of three, as they did. With Youk out of the lineup, a rookie starter that pitched in a semi-pro league last year in Japan and a one-pitch starter on the mound, the Olde Towne Team did a solid job.

The currently flawed Red Sox have to keep beating up on less talented teams and hold their own versus their postseason competition. They have done just that through their toughest two weeks of the season ending up only down a half a game.

We should not expect much more until Wake and Buchholz start posting quality starts and/or the offense starts putting up more crocked numbers than doughnuts over nine frames. And if they can't get that done over the next 13 games, then it is time to hit the panic button or make plans to hit Vegas in October.

2009-08-15T11:41:00.006-05:00

RANDOM RUMBLING

We know this is a big weekend for the Sox down in Texass, as the Rangers have emerged as their top Wild Card competition. It is also the signing deadline for 2009 draft pick. More on these Sox subjects next week but now my take on various topics. As always, random rumblings are written in a joking and not so serious tone.

* My car can’t $hit properly. The pipe to the exhaust system has a hole. It is time for a new car. I’m thinking hybrid, although the consensus best on the market - Prius - screams self righteous green tool. And I want people to be surprised to realize that I’m an Arrogant Bastard (yummy good beer).

* As the newspaper industry is trying anything to survive, its demise seems primarily external and thus, no internal changes will save it. The internet reduced the barrier to entry in the news distribution thereby increasing competition on multiple fronts of their business model. As the printing press did to the town crier and other jobs, new technology eliminates the demand for some old products and services.

* Let me know when home sales have a quarterly year-over-year increase. Since home sales are a seasonal industry, not many relocate in the winter, run rates are relatively insignificant. A quarterly Y-O-Y increase COULD be the start of the stabilization in housing prices/most household balances sheets/consumer spending/70% of the US economy and period of sustainable GDP growth. But until that time, we still have a risk for a W shaped recovery (pun not intended initially).

* A triple play of thoughts on the so called Cash-for-Clunkers program: 1) it will increases state sales tax, 2) it saves the potential loss of payroll taxes and unemployment claims a.k.a. jobs, 3) the parent company (the U.S. government) gets a much lower interest rate than its subsidiary (G.M.); cheaper financing.

* We have larger issues to resolve as a society, but can’t we have tiered handicap parking. The more trouble you have the closer you get to park for the disabled. Conversely, your Body Mass Index should determine the section you park your vehicle. The Obese or Fatties could use the forced exercise. Maybe this provision is in one of the four health care reform bills in Congress.

* My biggest disappointment of the Obama Administration: If Ben Bernanke states twenty-five financial companies are too systemically significant to fail, then the discussion should be about breaking up the two-five not further regulation.

* Bill Maher: James Madison wrote that "pure democracy" doesn't work because "there is nothing to check... an obnoxious individual.” It is our right to be rude/speak but we don’t have a right to be listened too...well for another year.

2009-08-09T11:50:00.009-05:00

THE BUMPER STICKER TEST

One of the concepts that stuck with me from my time studying a summer in DC is the bumper sticker test: If you can’t fit your slogan/product on a bumper sticker, then go back to the drawing board because it ain‘t gonna sell. The public has no appetite for anything more than short statements and rudimentary concepts. It is all about the headlines and sound bites. Most don’t have the time and/or interest to dig a little deeper even when information flows more freely today than ever. But when discussing the use of performance enhancing drugs in baseball and playing jury as to whether a player or team is “tainted“, the details should matter if you are a fan of the game.

If the 2004 Red Sox World Series win is now “tainted“ with David Ortiz on “the list” and Manny Ramirez allegedly on “the list” as well as being suspended for using a banned substance in 2009, then the argument has to be: the banned substances taken in 2003 had to have a lingering affect that gave the sluggers an unfair advantage in 2004 and assuming that being on “the list“ equates to true positive test. It seems plausible, but we currently do not have enough information to render an educated opinion.

First, assuming it was an agreed upon positive test, we would need to know: what was taken, how it affects the body, would it help baseball performance and if so for how long. These questions would need to be answered for each confirmed positive test by a player before even discussing if the 2004 Red Sox had an unfair advantage on the field. We need to put on hold the discussion of asterisks.

***** Posts are going to be about once a week since I've found Twitter so follow El Guapo's Ghost. It is not lame. Twitter has a questionable brand right now; just like blogs and facebook did a year or so ago. It will pass too.

2009-08-02T14:37:00.006-05:00

THINGS ARE BAD IN CLEVELAND

"There was some lack of conviction on the part of management on the team’s ability to contend next year, if we kept Lee and made zero additions in the offseason, which is what ownership said would have to be the case," Shapiro said. "So I had to weigh in my mind keeping Cliff and trying to contend next year, knowing that after next year Cliff, Victor, and Jake would all be gone."

Ownership a.k.a “management” made Shapiro’s decision to start the rebuilding process much easier in Cleveland. Indians fans be prepared for Kerry Wood, Jhonny Peralta and Jake Westbrook (I thought would be included in Sox deal for V-Mart, but it makes sense for the Indians to build up his value over the first four months of 2010). It is sad; Cleveland was such a great baseball city 10 years ago.

A solid core of position players and prospects which could prove to be a formidable lineup as soon as next year. The Indians needed pitching and got it from the Sox.

Justin Masterson is the most well known former Sock to head west, but Nick Hagadone is the key player in the deal. The third player going to Cleveland is Bryan Price.

Hagadone is a hard throwing southpaw with a plus slider coming off TJ surgery. Reports indicate his stuff is back so if he can show an average change, the prospect projects as a top of the rotation starter. If the change does not materialize, then he looks like a future closer. Of course, pitching in A-ball and coming back from TJ, Hagadone is high risk -high reward asset.

Masterson was never going to get a shot at the Sox rotation and to a lesser extent work through his issue against lefties. On the Olde Towne Team, the side-armer was their long reliever and middle innings ROOGY (right-handed one out guy). Masterson’s role is easily replaceable, but he was too good to send down for further development. He’ll get that shot with the rebuilding Indians in the Show. Unfortunately for the Tribe, he will be arbitration eligible in 2011. Even if Masterson does figure it out, he’ll start cost them some real money. Michael Bowden would have been a better option for the Indians.

Not much to say about V-Mart. He has no weakness at the plate. The catcher and first baseman hits for average, power, and gets on-base. V-Mart can’t run and he isn’t a good defender at either position, but he is here to hit at a below market rate. The question is who’s plate appearances does V-Mart take and how much of an upgrade will he be? Regardless of how it plays out in 2009, the only player who could possibly be tough to replace is Hagadone. With this being said, the Sox made a very good deal.

2009-07-31T13:41:00.002-05:00

MULTIPLE SOURCES ARE REPORTING THAT RED SOX SET TO ACQUIRE VICTOR MARTINEZ!!!!

2009-07-27T21:22:00.005-05:00

RED SOX 6-4-3 DOUBLE PLAY

* John Smoltz is averaging nearly a strikeout per inning while walking only five in thirty innings. He may have lost a tick or two on the fastball but his stuff is still good. Smoltz needs to be more consistent and locate better. When Wake returns, which may not be right around the corner (he didn’t play catch today as scheduled according to Amalie Benjamin) and Smoltz is still not being productive, does he work on things in RI, gets DFA or does Buchholz gets optioned?

* Prediction: Marco Scutaro to the Twinkies and the return of Orlando Cabrera to the Sox. Theo goes the cheaper prospect route. Since Cabrera can not be offered arbitration if he is classified as a Type A, his trade value is less than Scutaro’s. Plus, O.C. is making close to four times Scutaro.

***** Posts are going to be about once a week since I've found Twitter so follow El Guapo's Ghost. It is not lame. Twitter has a questionable brand right now; just like blogs and facebook did a year or so ago. It will pass too.

2009-07-14T20:14:00.014-05:00

RANDOM RUMBLINGS OVER THE BREAK

As always, random rumblings are written in a joking and not so serious tone.

No Red Sox and no Remy makes El Guapo’s Ghost go something something, so…

* The NESN pre and post-game has become intolerable. Even with my biases - Tom Caron, fellow SMC alumni, Jim Rice my favorite player growing up (I used to foolishly argue with my late Meme that Rice was better than Teddy Williams), the most underrated Boston media member Nick Cafardo, it has been awful. I don’t need: a on air reading of the Boston Globe Red Sox section, the on air gorgeous Heidi Watney doing some segment to suck up time, and the thousands of commercials, sponsors and cross-promos. When do the red sock condoms hit the market?

* Speaking of the greatest hitter to ever live, how many Bostonians gave up their HBO subscriptions? A documentary on Teddy Ballgame and Teddy Kennedy debuting in the same month.

* Since our health insurance premiums are not subject to federal and state taxes, the government/we tax payers are essentially subsidizing the for profit companies that we love to hate.

* Without the Sox and I’m not going to read (that would be crazy), TV is limited. Anthony Bourdain is back. Weeds is good - everyone needs more @kevin_nealon - but Nancy and Celia’s characters are stale. Following the Botwins is Nurse Jackie. It tries to fit a few ER stories and Jackie’s personal/family/professional issues while developing entertaining characters in 22 minutes. It is just too much for that time slot. It could be a metaphor for Jackie’s life but it still doesn’t make for great TV. Thankfully, Mad Men is back at the end of the month and in about two months Californication and Dexter or should I say Kobe will be back (Joey Gonzales, L.A. via the Sports Guy).

* I eat out often + I twitter = I like restaurants that tweet. Anyway, I find it ironic that my favorite eating establishment, The Alchemist, is twenty-five minutes away although I have about 30 plus restaurants within a five block radius.

* Don’t pass up the chance to see Esperanza Spalding. She is incredible. David Letterman called her, “The coolest person we’ve ever had on the show.”

2009-07-12T08:31:00.008-05:00

IN THIS ECONOMY, HALLADAY PROBABLY STAYS NORTH OF THE BORDER UNLESS THE PRICE COMES DOWN

Jon Heyman of SI wrote,

"…Jays people continue to talk to interested teams, telling them they seek two big-time prospects who'll be major-league ready by next year, including a prime hitter, and two very good prospects who are further away from the bigs."

No rationale baseball owner signs off dealing two near ready prospects and then some for Roy Halladay. Halladay's on-field abilities and asset value (market minus salary) are well known.

C.C. Sabathia recently signed a contract paying him an average annual value of $23 million, which establishing the top of the market for a true number one starter. The difference between $7.67M ($23 prorated for a 1/3 of 2009) less Halladay's prorated 2009 salary is $2.92M plus the 2010 variance puts his value around $10M. He is sick and a bargain, but the huge unknown, in this economy, is the boost in revenue the additional wins a club gets from Halladay. This variable will limit the number of suitors and return for the Ace.

This past winter a "prime hitter" cost around $10M per season (see: Ibanez, Dunn, Bradley, Burrell). A top prospect's current asset value from 2010-2015 is roughly $38M (net present value discounted at 2.5%). Even adjusting that the "big-time prospect" will fail 25% at becoming a "prime hitter", he is still worth $28.5M. Double that for the two near-Show ready players and we are talking a $57M. By using the same set of assumptions but forecasting the pair of prospects reaching the Jays in 2013 and giving them only 25% chance of succeeding yields a value of roughly $35M for both. The total asset value the Jays are seeking for Halladay is around $92M.

In summary, a club would need to be confident in adding about $80M in revenue over 1 1/3 seasons to reasonably justify meeting the Jays demand. In this economic environment with fans saving money and ad budgets being slashed, increasing sales is doubtful. An owner has to be willing to take a possible long-term loss for short-term glory or he/she has plans to sell the club in the coming years. Hence, it is unlikely that Halladay will be traded in the next few weeks unless the price comes down.

2009-07-02T09:44:00.003-05:00

BIG TRADE OR NO TRADE LIKELY FOR THE SOX

According to Will Carroll, “…Synvisc is quick-acting and is removed by the body, putting him on the DL now would indicate that it didn't work…” But Lowell felt good and wanted to play tomorrow . Either the Sox are taking a more cautious course of action with the third baseman or Lowell is trying to gut it out similar to the end of last year. Regardless, it is unlikely that Lowell will have a prolonged stint on the DL, which could complicate the Sox roster management.

The Sox probably won’t be acquiring a Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche since it would be at the expense of Mark Kotsay, without an additional move. The versatile veteran is necessary due to the fragility of Drew, Rocco’s inability to play everyday, Jon Van Every out for the rest of the year and Ellsbury desire to run through walls. Unless the Sox acquire a right-handed hitting RF that can handle center, like Ryan Spilborghs, then a big name first or third baseman is “not walking through that door.”

2009-06-24T18:22:00.004-05:00

WHO TO BLAME FOR PEDs PROBLEM?

If you want to blame the easy target, Donald Fehr, for PEDs, then your argument should be based on his lack of leadership. He had a soap box but did use it or speak loudly enough. Fehr did not step outside of the normal union business box and into the PEDs issue.

Unlike the owners, MLBPA’s main concern is not revenue growth; just that the players receive their “fair” percentage. So if the MLBPA did not forecast a decline in the rate of revenue expansion caused by any PEDs PR problems (and so far they would be right), then it should not, and was not high on their priority list. The same rationale is valid for the owners. Unless it impacted their pocketbooks, PEDs was out of both the owners and MLBPA’s main area of responsibility.

But not for Bud Selig, as the Commissioner of Baseball, he should have had “the best interest of baseball” on his brain. If Selig was a strong leader, he would have defied his fellow owners and locked out the players in 2002 until they accepted tougher PEDs rules.

Of course, the using PEDs players are to blame. Selig, though, carries the vast majority of the responsibility for creating an environment that allowed the abuse to continue, not Fehr/MLBPA or the owners. Selig should have more aggressively addressed the PEDs problem, as it is under his job description. The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball was created, in part, to deal with these issues.

2009-06-22T21:55:00.012-05:00

WITH MONEY TO SPEND, NO PRESSING NEEDS COULD BRANDON WEBB COME TO BOSTON - PURE SPECULATION, AS ALWAYS

With David Ortiz looking like Big Papi, Lowrie and Smoltz almost ready to return, the Sox are likely to keep up their strong play. The Olde Towne Team is league average or better in every underlying measure other than fielding metrics. The return of Lowrie and a healthier Mike Lowell combined with better play from essentially last year's good defensive team could result in turning more balls in play into outs.

A drop off in Runs Scored could come if Ortiz does not continue to offset Youk's return to normal from a Ted Williams' type line and Jason Bay regresses to his normal production levels. Although the left fielder could be having a career year, Bay Being Canadian is in a prime and contract year. If he keeps this up, BBC would hit about 85% of his top PECOTA projection. Regardless, Runs Against should fall with the rotation rounding into form and better glove work. Hence, the Sox run differential and likely winning percentage will stay on its current pace for 96 wins.

No additions outside of the organization is necessary. Maybe a tweak to the bench like swapping bad contracts (Lugo to KC for Jose Guillen?). If a significant trade is made, it would primarily be for 2010 and beyond like acquiring Brandon Webb.

If Webb…“needs a significant surgical procedure, the Diamondbacks will be hesitant to pick up the 2010 option on his contract, which is worth $8.5 million. They instead could buy out the option for $2 million, making Webb a free agent.” says Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic.

If the former Cy Young winner will not pitch again in 2009 and will be bought out by the D-Backs but could be ready this time next year, then the Sox could be interested at the right price. The price might be the Olde Towne Team picking up the remaining $2.167M of Webb’s salary and his $8.5M option for 2010 or about $1M more than what the Sox will pay a healthy Smoltz. If they wanted a prospect and not a minor league lifer, they would have to contribute to Webb’s salary.

The D-Backs tenuous financial state may push this type of trade forward without any prospects heading to the desert. The Sox would leverage their balance sheet, staff acumen (medical and managerial) and current on-field strengths for a leg up next season.

*** Posts are going to be about once a week since I've found Twitter so follow El Guapo's Ghost. It is not lame. Twitter has a questionable brand right now; just like blogs and facebook did a year or so ago. It will pass too.

2009-06-14T11:36:00.003-05:00

RED SOX ROTATION…MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

The conversation about what to do with the rotation, since Smoltz is ready, is somewhat futile. First off, this is a rich person’s problem. It is a good thing. Second, after a google search the handwriting is on the Green Monster as to what will happen between now and the Break. The second Dice Man (similar career paths?) is not 100%. He will likely be heading to the DL with Smoltz taking his spot in the rotation - problem solved. Matsuzaka will return in the middle of the week before the Break to give everyone five days off between starts.

Even if no one goes on the 15-day DL, Smoltz will head to the pen with Daniel Bard going down I-95 to work on his breaking ball. (Both Bard, Buchholz and Bowden are only a phone call away.) The future HOFer is fine pitching in relief (probably due to the bonus clause in his contract). As Justin Masterson did early in the year, Smoltz could easily transition back to a starter prior to the Break, if necessary. During the Break, he could have a minor league start to stay stretched out just in case a trade happened in the coming two weeks.

As for Penny, as you probably have guessed is staying in the rotation. At this point, it benefits both him due to his bonus terms and the Sox by, hopefully, increasing his trade value. According to Jon Heyman, the Phillies, Mets and Cards have interest in Penny but also have higher priorities. A deal involving Penny will likely be at the deadline. Hence, necessitating the plans outlined above.

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2009-06-11T11:00:00.000-05:00

HOW SWEEP IT IS...BRING ON THE ONE-YEAR WONDERS

The MFY clearly have pitching issues. Wang is not right. Other than CC, no starter has a better than 2-to-1 K/BB ratio. And the pen is a mess. The MFY's pitchers SUCK! Now onto that second class city between NYC and DC that wasn't the setting for one of the greatest TV shows ever.

Even though Philly won the W.S. last year and they have the Liberty Bell, any major city that is best known for a type of fast food and a movie is just sad. At least Cleveland has the Rock-n-Roll Hall of Fame and they’re not Det-Riot.

2009-06-08T21:05:00.003-05:00

WHAT TO DO AT DH?

The Sox have three options at DH. The course taken will depend on Big Papi’s production over the next month or so because the last few have sucked.

Scenario 1: Ortiz continues to suck and gets released. He is replaced by a Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Adam LaRoche, etc. As long as Ortiz is on the roster, he is going to get the majority of the playing time, which would make a deal of this magnitude foolish. If a change has to be made, it should be a clean break a la Nomar in 2004.

Scenario 2: Ortiz improves to hit a line of 250/350/400 from here on out. He is neither hurting nor helping the lineup against RHP but needs to be platooned versus southpaws. In this case, the Sox could add a Jamey Carroll type – a RHB that can play left and the infield. The addition would allow Tito to roll Youk, Lowell, Pedrioa and Bay through the DH hole thereby giving each a half day off during the dog days. Nick Green could be that guy, but my watch says it is almost midnight and that’s when Green turns orange…back into a pumpkin.

Scenario 3: The Indians are throwing in the towel for 2009 and looking towards 2010. Cleveland is confident that the combination of Kelly Shoppach and top prospect, Carlos Santana, can be nearly as productive as Victor Martinez would be in 2010. Hence, the Indians will shop V-Mart in-season (Cliff Lee will not be dealt). But not needing to move the All-Star and being under contract for a 245 games, Mark Shapiro will look for more than received last summer for C.C. Sabathia. Thus, it would take two top prospects plus two other lower level prospects to bring Martinez to Boston. It would be a high price to pay, although the catcher would be a perfect fit as he could share time behind the plate, at first and DH for the remaining of this year and next.

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2009-06-06T11:44:00.002-05:00

THE FIXABLE ISSUE IS AT DH NOT SHORT

It is difficult it is for a hitter to overcome a wrist injury, as Jed Lowrie is trying to accomplish. According to Will Carroll, most players initially have a loss of power and bat control. [Carroll tweeted the above about wrist injuries a few days ago, but today, June 9th, repeated that Lowrie's issue is more like a broken arm than a wrist injury, which should be less of a issue at the plate. Regardless, I'm still skeptical of Lowrie just not as much.] This would translate into fewer homers and more strikeouts. After only 300 plate appearances in the Show, it seems unlikely he will be the answer at short in 2009.

Unfortunately, quality two way shortstops are rarely available on the trade market. When Rickie Weeks went down, even the faint thought of a J.J. Hardy blockbuster deal was dead. (The Brewers have an excellent shortstop, Alcides Escobar, in AAA). Old friend, Orlando Cabrera, would appear to be an option, but he may not be an upgrade given his play to date. It is rare that teams give up on players that play in the middle of the diamond and can hit.

Shortstop is likely to be a weakness all year. Although if the Sox can get production from the DH spot, which is a relatively easy issue to resolve (more on this soon), Argenis Diaz should see some time. He is a wizard with the leather, but not much with the stick even in Portland. If none of the options at short are going to hit, play the plus defender that doesn’t cost the Sox anything. Diaz could be the Olde Towne Team’s everyday shortstop in August.

2009-06-02T19:24:00.005-05:00

THE DIFFERENCE IN JAPANESE IMPORTS

In a profile piece on Junichi Tazawa, is a swipe taken at Daisuke Matsuzaka?

Tazawa still has plenty of work to do, but it would appear the Red Sox are going to give him the time he needs to make himself major league ready. But because he has no professional experience prior to this year, he is not set in his ways.

The article then goes on to articulate a Red Sox philosophy.

“One of the things we try to teach in the organization is pitching to contact,” said Sea Dogs pitching coach Mike Cather, who pitched parts of three seasons in the big leagues with the Atlanta Braves. “The more pitches hitters see, the more difficult it is to get them out. Having him throw a pitch he has conviction with, rather than throwing a ball because he doesn’t want to throw the pitch, is way more important. When he takes that upon himself, that’s a big step.”

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2009-06-01T18:44:00.002-05:00

PROCURING AMATEUR TALENT

The MLB amateur draft is eight days away. Over the last few drafts, the Sox have demonstrated two trends:

1) selecting pitchers who came out of the pen and can be developed into starters,
2) meeting the bonus demands of "tough signs" in the middle to end of the single digit rounds.

My guess is that the Sox like the fact that college relievers have fewer innings on their arms than three year starters. It probably lowers the risk of injury in their projection model. If Drew Storen is available, the Sox might be tempted to select the closer from Stanford.

The Olde Towne Team also throws the green around to acquire talent that some clubs determine are imprudent expenditures. It seems recently though that more clubs have been matching or even exceeding the Sox amateur draft investments. If the trend continues, we could see them select questionable "signability" players earlier than the fifth round.

For FREE updates on the Sox draft go over to Soxprospects.com

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