El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

BRAD PENNY, STARTING PITCHER, TRADED TO THE RED SOX?

Jack McKeon and Brad Penny:

"If my pitcher can't get the good hitters out, then there's only one way he's going to learn how to become a good pitcher. If you're going to pitch in the big leagues, you ought to be able to get Piazza out...Told of McKeon's comments, Penny said, "I've been getting good hitters out all year.''

Without any inside information, Penny for Kim and Mirabelli could be a possibility, once the Marlins are sold on A.J. Burnett’s health and effectiveness. It was reported this past weekend in the Sun-Sentinel that the Marlins were interested in Mirabelli and Kim. The Sox would likely send $1.1 million or the salary difference (Penny makes $3.725 million) plus most of Kim’s $6 million salary for next season for the deal to happen.

The Marlins get a low cost veteran catcher that they feel the club needs in Dougie and taking on at virtually no cost a high ceiling pitcher while giving up a perceived problem at a position with a surplus. Tommy Phelps, a southpaw control artist, fits in nicely as the fifth starter to contrast the Marlins power arms - Burnett, Willis, Beckett and Pavano. Penny would be a prime candidate to be dealt or non-tendered after this season if he stays with the Marlins. He stands to receive a large payday as a super/fifth-year arbitration eligible player over the winter. Beckett and Burnett will also be looking for significant raises. Penny is the likely odd man out so the Marlins maybe looking to deal him now to help this year’s club. Pavano could be moved instead, but the Marlins would loose the possibility of draft pick compensation by trading Pavano; it is not an issue with Penny.

The Sox would get a pitcher “who control and pound the strike zone.” Penny has averaged 2.5 walks per nine over the last couple of seasons; one walk below the league average. Penny’s K and HR rates are at the league average. The Sox would control Penny in 2005 reducing the need to acquire two starters over the winter. At 26, he is beginning to get over the hump as a high injury risk player. Penny is turning into a workhorse. He would be a stabilizing force for the staff. It would allow Arroyo to move back to the pen. Arroyo would serve as the long-man who can also dominate righties with his breaking ball. Andy Dominque becomes the backup catcher with V-Tek playing more like a regular starting catcher as Tito was going to implement before the season began. This would be a great move for the Sox.

News and notes:

• Steven Goldman of Baseball Prospectus had some very interesting observations that I wanted to share. It's been a staple of early-season baseball talk that last year's bullpen revolution admitted defeat when Keith Foulke was signed. Note to the establishment: Foulke IS the revolution. On most teams, the closer, ostensibly the best pitcher in the pen, will pitch fewer innings than the weaker set-up and middle men. This is not so in Boston, where Foulke leads his team in relief innings. None of this namby-pamby "saving the pitcher" stuff (apologies to Will Carroll, who means it in an entirely more constructive way); the Sox cut right to the chase. Last year the idea was right but the staff was wrong. Foulke is the one who will bring the force back into balance. Viva la revolución! P.S, The only rationale for playing Pokey Reese is that Derek Lowe needs the glove help, but Lowe is beyond rescue. Pokey can do a lot of things in the field, but he can't stop Lowe from throwing ball four.

Goldman on Freddy on the block, It seems as if the world will beat a path to their door to bid for Freddy Garcia's services, but (1) while not entirely a mirage, Garcia has been a vastly more effective pitcher in the soggy confines of whatever corporate stadium the Mariners are playing in this week (why even bother to keep them straight?). While his road ERA is still a healthy 4.15, his strikeouts per nine drops from 8.74 to 4.67 and, (2) who the hell wants to bet the outcome of their season on Freddy Garcia?

• Mussina looked like his old self yesterday but I would not pronounce him back just yet. As for the others…

Isn’t time for Kevin Brown to make his annual visit to the DL? I’ve got shoulder stiffness. Lieber and Javy have been hit or miss and I’ve got more control after 10 beers and a couple of shots than Jose Contreras on the mound.

• Ben Jacobs of Hardball Times sums up my take on Petey. Well, it's been seven weeks now, and while Pedro's fastball has gotten better, his walks are up slightly from last year and up significantly from the previous two seasons. Also, he's already allowed 10 homers in 75.2 innings after allowing 20 in 385 innings the last two years. I'm officially worried.