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Sunday, June 13, 2004

AFTER THE BREAK...

I have been basically without the net for three days - a day in NYC and two in Boston (notes on my trip tomorrow) - but today I am back on-line.

Gordon Edes on Tek's future prospects from the mouth of Scott Boras,

Of course, not all of those numbers were generated at the same age as Varitek is now, so Boras took 11 catchers who had four seasons of 800-plus innings and their performances after age 31. The group included Ausmus, Boone, Rick Dempsey, Fisk, Lance Parrish, Tony Pena, Benito Santiago, Terry Steinbach, Jim Sundberg, Ernie Whitt, and Dan Wilson. In every case, Boras showed that the catcher in question was effective either offensively or defensively.

And for catchers with durability and production after the age of 31, Boras cited five: Fisk, Parrish, Santiago, Steinbach, and Whitt.


Boras' conclusion is contary to my own because only Dan Wilson is a comparable that was a part of both analysis. (Wilson's career OPS is 700.)

After checking out Tek's PECOTA card on Baseball Prospectus for an expanded comparables list, Boone, Parrish, Whitt and Fisk all had one season similar to the Sox catcher. But none with a score that was "substantially comparable" or > 50; not one above a score of 40.

At the conclusion of the 2004 season, Tek's numbers could be more in line with names listed by his agent but at this time Boras' analysis is permature.

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