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Wednesday, December 09, 2009

SCUTARO AT SHORTSTOP

Now that Chone Figgins’ contract has been finalized with the Mariners, I can post about the Red Sox signing of Marco Scutaro.  Figgins, going into his age 32 season, is going to receive $9 million a year for the next four seasons plus an option to play good defense at third or second, get on base and swipe some bags.  Currently, the M’s will surrender their first-round draft pick (18th overall) due to the signing as well. 

It is about where I thought the market would be for Figgins based on Rafael Furcal’s $30 million over three years last winter.  Hence, my feeling was that Scutaro’s per year market would be in the $7.5-8 million range and after his age 34 season, getting a two year deal.  But after reading that the statistically declining 34 year-old Placido Polanco got a three year deal for $18 million, my thought was that it would take $20 million or more to sure up shortstop and could end up like the Julio Lugo and Edgar Renteria disasters

As we know, Scutaro left guaranteed money on the table from the A’s to play in Boston at a below market yearly rate. Now, this lets Lowrie play mostly in AAA to be ready in 2011 to replace Mike Lowell at the hot corner. But back to Scutaro, he should be a two-to-three win upgrade over last season if he can post a respectable OBP as he has done lately nearly his entire career. We should not have to endure another season of suck-a-tude at short.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

HITTING TO ALL FIELDS: Lowell, Cabrera Squared, Scutaro, Pedroia and a Boston media conspiracy theory

***

A blast from my past:

“As regular readers know, I wanted Miguel Cabrera. I also didn’t want the Sox to give out long-term deals because it would limit their future opportunity to acquire Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira or Miguel Cabrera. Now that Santana and Cabrera will likely be off the market next winter and the Sox should get the 2006 Lowell in 2008 and 2009, Lowell’s three year contract is not so bad.”

But the signing likely prevented the Red Sox from making a more competitive offer to Teixeira.

***

As for Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers would need to agree to pay most of the back end of his contract before trade discussions should commence. He is starting to look a lot like his eighth most comparable player, Andruw Jones.

***

Mark Scutaro and a multi-year contract is not the answer at short. Simply: the third time is NOT the charm. Please learn from your mistakes.

***

With Bobby Crosby and Adam Everett being floated in the media as possibilities at shortstop (both bring the same amount of suckiness as last year), can someone please inform me as to what “off-the-field issues” Orlando Cabrera still has or had in 2004 that prevents him from being an option?

Did Dr. Charles Steinberg, the Dentist and former Consigliere to Larry Lucchino, have to clean up a dead hooker for Orlando? Seriously, Cabrera must have personally pissed off a Red Sox owner to be blackballed because he is their best option. The former Olde Towne Team shortstop will not cost a draft pick, probably will sign a similar one-year $4M deal like last year, and is relatively solid with the stick and in the field. Cabrera is the better Jed Lowrie insurance policy.

***

The Dustin Pedrioa moving to the other side of second base is probably Plan Q. It is also interesting to note that Peter Gammons published the information on the same day as John Henry’s “interview” hit the “series of tubes.” Was SS Plan Q leaked the same day to temper the discussion of Henry’s brain fart and poor us sounding “interview”?

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

THANKSGIVING!

Dear Friends, Followers, Blog Readers,

Yeah, you are all getting the same note - settle down, you are all snowflakes. Have a great Thanksgiving! For various reasons this is the most American of holidays and my favorite. In case some of you forgot, I love turkey day since it is the one day that eating and drinking too much, then falling asleep watching football is socially acceptable or a normal Sunday for this guy. Anyway, I do have much to be thankful for but nobody wants to hear how great someone else $hit is… So eat drink & be merry.

Monday, November 16, 2009

HOW ROY HALLADAY COMES TO BOSTON?

As mentioned in the previous post, the Marlins are unlikely to trade Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson with a new park on the way. Currently, this leaves only Roy Halladay as an impact trade target for the Red Sox. If the old school workhorse is going to leverage his no-trade right into a contract extension at market rate like Johan Santana, then only a hand full of clubs can be considered to be in the running for his services.

The Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs have ownership issues so it is unlikely they make a financial splash this winter. The Mets will be players but Halladay may not view them as a contender. The Giants are likely to make an offense upgrade their first priority. This leaves the Red Sox, LAA of A, the MFY and the Phillies.

The following is a scenario that Halladay lands in Boston:

* The LAA of A gives up on resigning John Lackey. Hence, they would appear to be players for Halladay but they do not have as much depth on the farm. If Chone Figgins leaves the O.C., then Brandon Wood could slide in at the hot corner eliminating a possible piece that would bring Halladay west.

* The MFY sign Lackey, re-up Andy Pettitte and ink a leftfielder. The MFY do not make a trade to resolve their off season issues thereby holding on their prospects. They continue with their recent winter way of doing business in the Bronx - make more and spend more money to hold onto their top minor leaguers.

* The Phillies sign Cliff Lee to a Sabathia/Santana type contract. Now, “It’s like a baby New York” team does not need to go to the mattresses for Halladay or give up talent on the farm so soon again. And even without the workhorse from the north, the Phillies are still the overwhelming favorites for another pennant.

* The Sox do not ink Josh Beckett to an extension, which would moderately increase their desire for Halladay. The former Cy Young award winner would pair with Jon Lester beyond 2010 instead of Beckett. And in the upcoming season, Halladay would improve the club’s run prevention without taking away anything from a lineup that can be expected to be one of the best again next year.

The Jays move from their desire for "…one above-average impact guy than eight ordinary guys” since they only have one real dance partner remaining. It is a similar circumstance to the Santana trade from the Twins, as the Jays will accept a package that is not much greater than two 2011 top draft picks, although it appears Bill Smith took the “eight ordinary guys.” Hence, Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard will not be heading north.

The Red Sox have the depth in the farm to trade a pair or even three prospects. Kevin Goldstein commented after an article grading the Olde Towne Team’s prospects that…“They're 1-11 might not be crazy elite, but their 21-30 would rank very high, so there are a lot of options.”

The Olde Towne Team also has a financial motivation for the trade. NESN’s revenue likely declined last season due to both a ratings and number of subscribing households decline. Now, the Red Sox can partially justify the Halladay transactions with the projected incremental revenue from NESN. Assuming the “fans” who jumped off the bandwagon after the disappointing loss to the Rays leap back on with the dreams of a Halladay, Lester, Beckettt October rotation.

To sum up, if the three other probably suitors for the extension demanding Halladay attend to other issues first, the Red Sox could find the price palatable for the former Cy Young award winner. Ironically, the MFY could drive Halladay to Boston by acting quickly on Lackey and Figgins. Only time will tell if New England has another definition for the “Big Three.”

Sunday, November 08, 2009

I CAN’T BELIEVE…I’VE GOT MORE ON HERMIDA


Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus
made two very good points on the Hermida trade. The first is that the newly acquired outfielder has options remaining. Hence, Hermida can be the Sox expensive fifth outfielder in Pawtucket. This trade will not have much, if any impact on finding replacements for Jason Bay and Rocco Baldelli (a.k.a. a right-handed hitting platoon partner for J.D. Drew and a backup for Jacoby Ellsbury).

But it probably reduces the chance of the Sox acquiring Josh Johnson - my former trade target to be named later - as it frees up cash to sign him to a long-term deal. The top of the rotation starter and Hanley Ramirez can be on board when the Marlins open their new Park.

Friday, November 06, 2009

YOUR ARCH RIVAL WINS THE WORLD SERIES AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY HERMIDA

Vermont native, Buster Olney was dead on during an interview on WEEI. He predicted the Sox would get Jeremy Hermida for a song due to the financial issues facing many clubs. And it was a steal, but for a player that does not fit the current makeup of this team unless the Sox are not going to sign Jason Bay. Hermida like Casey Kotchman should be pricey insurance policies, as they are not starters on a contending team, or moved for more complementary pieces for the Olde Towne Team. Hermida is a better fit on the MFY as they have a possible opening in leftfield. Thankfully, the Marlins did not want to wait, which seems ridiculous, and Brian Cashman has been preoccupied according to Olney…

“You know, it’s interesting, I talked to Brian Cashman two days ago, and he was sort of like, “Hey, what do you hear out there,” and I talked about the non-tender thing. And he said, “Boy, I kind of wish I had more time to get into it, but I don’t.” And I guarantee that today after he picks up his kids from school, he’ll be making phone calls and jumping into that market.”

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

ANALYZING THE RED SOX RUMORS

We discussed why Adrian Gonzalez is unlikely coming to Boston. Next up is Felix Hernandez. Roy Halladay will be added as well as the previously mentioned Hanley Ramirez and a trade target to be named later.

THEY DON’T GROW ON TREES EVEN WITH ALL THE RAIN IN SEATTLE

If your team is serious about winning a championship, then trading a young true #1 starter should be the last resort. These players are the most important component in going far in October. Plus, they are expensive in the free agent market (see: C.C. Sabathia’s $161M contract).

Only when an organization can not field a championship caliber team when they control their young true #1 starter should he be dealt. This should not be the case for the Mariners and Felix Hernandez, as the M’s have the financial means to sign the very young ace to be their cornerstone into the next decade. At only 24 years of age, Hernandez signing a four or five year deal would allow him for another large contract before his thirtieth birthday. It would appear to be a win-win for the M’s-Hernandez so it stands a high probability to getting accomplished.

Even if King Felix is being shopped, the Sox have fewer bullets after the Victor Martinez trade to exchange for Hernandez. Also, as we mentioned in an earlier post, Theo Epstein is…

"…trying to grow the organization to the point where we don't have to ever get a free agent. We're probably closer to that point now then we were two or three offseasons ago. It's a lesson learned for sure."

It would appear that the Red Sox do not want to move more prospects as it would likely necessitate further risky and expensive free agent acquisitions in the near future. But Yawkey Way has been known to make exceptions.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

I HEART PEDRO...

...and hate the MF-Yankees; bring it tonight - for it maybe be the last time.

Thursday, December 30, 2004
A LETTER TO THE GREATEST RED SOX PITCHER EVER


Dear Pedro,

We both came to Boston in the fall of 1997. We both got our first "real" jobs in the Hub. I just graduated from college and you graduated from the JV squad in Montreal. Your introduction to Beantown came with a little more media attention than my Enterprise Rent-a-Van pulling up outside of my first apartment at 31 Gardner Street. I think my Mom has a picture or two.

Your acquisition and my new address renewed my devotion to the Red Sox which had faded after entering college. Academics were my focus for four years with a few twists: beer, music, girls, more beer, video games, stupid human tricks and other activities that I am not at liberty to discuss. Seriously, it was kind of tough to follow the club in the spring with finals and then I spending each summer without NESN. The strike of 1994 and uninteresting Sox clubs prior to 1998 did not help either. But that all changed, the Red Sox acquired you, the best pitcher in the world about to enter his prime.

I still remember the press conference to introduce you to the media and Red Sox Nation, which at the time was still in its formative years. Your eyes burst with enthusiasm and disbelief with all of the attention. Snow had piled up in the stands as you walked around the field with DD and Johnny Boy. Hordes of media members were watching your every move and snapping picture after picture - a tad different than Montreal.

Your first season did not disappoint, as you pitched the Sox to a playoff appearance against the Indians. You got the lone win for the Sox in that series. But it played as your introduction to the broader baseball world. The casual fan now knew of Pedro Martinez.

In the 1999 season, I got a new job working out of One Beacon Street. My college buddies, Meaney and Mattie Boy, and I would have to ride through Kenmore to get back to our apartments. Now we had a few more bucks to spend than when we first moved to the city, so on nice evenings before we left the office, we would call each other and try to talk one another into going to the game. The conversations would usually go like “come on what else are you going to do" and "it's only ten bucks" (yes, $10 for bleachers). At some point, one of us would ask "Is Pedro pitching?" If the answer was “yes”, we were there. You were the trump card. We never wanted to miss a Pedro start. There was always a possibility of witnessing history.

In 1999-2000 when it was your turn to take the mound, there was a type of buzz that has never been duplicated before a Sox game. It was the sense that I, the fan in the stands, could be a part of history today. I recall many games, when you were pitching and once the Sox scored, fans would be like “okay, time to go home.” The game was essentially over. No need to waste time watching the rest of the contest because you would shut down the other club. Let's head to the bar for cheaper beer. When you were on the mound in 1999 and 2000, we felt like MFY fans - our team would always come out on top.

There were so many magical moments in 1999. I missed most of your All-Star Game domination. Chico and I won Phish tickets for the same night during an all day bar hoping drinking bonanza from West to East via the Green Line. Great day, but I am not much of exhibition games anyway. I did catch you whiffing Sammy Sosa while waiting in line for a beer or was that a bong hit.

I have a tough time picking between your 1-hit, 17 strikeout wizardry over the MFY in their house, and the wounded warrior non-fastball throwing six relief inning dominance of the 1,000 run scoring Indian lineup in the deciding fifth game of the ALDS as my favorite performance in 1999. Regardless, I recall both evenings as they were yesterday, well…not really, probably more like a few months ago so excuse some discrepancies (I spelled “discrepancies” without the assistance of spell check. Shut up. It’s a big accomplishment for me.)

I did not have cable back in the day, but the game was on WSBK-38. I was watching it alone on my 13-inch set with rabbit ears. I did not get the sense of the history until later into the game because it was a close contest with the MFY. I can still see the one mistake made to Chilly Davis that he hits to dead center. But I can also see the classic Pedro hip turn-flip follow through with arms raised toward the sky after striking out number 17 for the final out with Seanie Mick saying something like “Pedro Martinez strikes out 17 New York Yankees! A historical performance!” Great stuff, but you became a legend that night in Cleveland.

I had tickets to Game 4 at Fenway when Johnny V hit two dingers in a something like 22-6 ass kicking of the Indians that sent the series to a deciding fifth Monday night game at the Jake. Game 4 was so long, I didn’t make it back to my apartment until about 1 a.m. and I needed to rise about six to catch a flight to Baltimore. It sucked.

After working in the day, we - I and two non-Sox fan co-workers - went out for dinner. I was exhausted. We tried the ESPNZONE in the Inner Harbor, but they were not showing the game. I was beside myself and the guy at ESPN was like “It’s Monday Night Football and that takes precedent over everything else.” Even though the guy had that D-1 college football middle linebacker look, for a few seconds I contemplated pulling a Zell Miller on his ass. Freaking Disney/ESPN/ABC conglomerate made me watch the game in an empty Pizzeria Uno on a small screen.

Anyway, it was great the ups and downs of the first few innings (I got to personally thank Troy O’Leary for his two homers during warm-ups when he was playing for the Expos). But nothing was better than the silence at the Jake as the bullpen door opened and Super Petey exited onto the field. It was over. Everyone knew it. You threw inning after inning of no hit ball, as I got more and more intoxicated. The free beers didn’t help either. The server hooked me up. I assumed she was a Sox fan. Anyway, after the final out, I raised my arms in triumph and I rode back to the hotel drunk and happy.

After your historically season of 1999 where you were robbed of the MVP award, SI put you on the cover of their baseball preview issue for 2000. SI predicted you would pitch the Sox to a championship. A few years early right.;) A buddy and former co-worker of mine, Kimball, helped me reconfigured the cover to incorporate a picture of the Babe, Buckner and with the caption "SI JINX, BUCKNER BLUNDER, CURSE OF THE BAMBINO NOT Y2K COMPLIANT." The Curse was not Y2K compliant. It just seemed that way for a few extra seasons.

This is how I want to remember Pedro Martinez. The diva act, the respect talk, the “my daddy” and the like do not mean anything to me. What I am going to remember most is having the privilege of experiencing that Pedro buzz high before a start at Fenway. It was one of kind like your dominance on the mound from 1999-2000.

Pedro, you reinvigorated my passion for the Red Sox, the game of baseball and you delivered on the implied promise at the time of your acquisition - a World Series Championship - thank you.

Friday, October 23, 2009

ANALYZING THE RED SOX RUMORS

Adrian Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez and Hanley Ramirez have been rumored to be trade targets of the Red Sox. The trio could be on the wish list, but none are likely to be playing for the Olde Towne Team in 2010. In this post and next two, it will be explained why each is probably not coming to Boston and who is a more realistic centerpiece of a blockbuster deal.

SAN DIEGO - GREAT WEATHER, ZOO, FIRST BASEMAN AND NONE ARE COMING TO BOSTON

Adrian Gonzalez is probably the only reason for Padres fans to head to Petco Park. It is tough to imagine new Owner, Jeff Moorad, alienating his customer/fan base. Some wounds never heal and Pads fans could easily switch allegiance to the Southern Cal's A.L. team. An hour-and-half drive north to watch good baseball isn't all that tough. Neither is just hang out at the beach, playing outside or hitting the inexpensive museums and world famous zoo (yes, I love San Diego). Gonzalez is the Padres and Moorad's only draw. He won’t be dealt as it might cost more to bring back the fans lost down the road.

If Moorad does put Gonzalez on the block, the Red Sox would likely not meet his price. It should take more than the bounty that sent Mark Teixeira to Atlanta, since the acquiring team will have an extra four months of Gonzalez and pay him $11.25M less than Teixeira's 2007-2008 seasons. In 2007, the Braves sent Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia - a conservative estimate assuming Beau Jones and Neftali Feliz would have been exchanged for Ron Mahay - to Texas for the sweet swinging switch hitter.

Before the 2007 season, Kevin Goldstein rated Salty, Harrison as very good prospects and Andrus a good prospect (Feliz was also rated a good prospect). The Red Sox current equivalent would be Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick or Ryan Westmoreland. A trade for Gonzalez would likely decimate the Red Sox farm system making them more reliant on the free agent market in the coming years, which is a route they are trying to avoid.

Theo Epstein said so much when discussing the trade of Julio Lugo.

"We're trying to grow the organization to the point where we don't have to ever get a free agent. We're probably closer to that point now then we were two or three offseasons ago. It's a lesson learned for sure."

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

NOW THIS IS CHEATING!


Thank you - Red Sox!

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